Elections in Canada: Trump’s comments about 51st state ruining the Conservative Party’s chance to win

The Liberal Party had been faltering in popularity after ten years under the leadership of Justin Trudeau while the Conservative Party made gains at their expense. However, Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric about Canada being the 51st US state triggered a dramatic increase in support for the Liberals.

Now under the leadership of Mark Carney, a former central bank head in both Canada and England, what could have been a rout by the Conservatives in the snap elections that will be held on 28 April, the Liberals are posed to safely win. The latest polling from YouGov gives Carney’s party a roughly fifty-seat lead in the national federal elections over the Conservatives, but there is still remains “a very real possibility” of a hung parliament where neither party wins 172 seats or more.

“Donald Trump is the ghost hanging over this election”

What could have been an election about the economy shifted to one about Canada’s sovereignty as President Trump repeatedly mused about making Canada the 51st state of the United States through an economic war. The threat became very real in the eyes of Canadians as Trump slapped punishing tariffs on one of its biggest trading partners.

“Donald Trump is the ghost hanging over this election,” Tom Urbaniak, professor of political science and director of the Tompkins Institute at Cape Breton University, told Newsweek. “His outrageous comments about annexing Canada and declaring economic war on this country have rattled the electorate, created a great deal of anxiety and to some extent overshadowed or absorbed other issues.”

“Trump’s constant threats and Mark Carney’s image as a serious, experienced—albeit not-very-charismatic—manager of crises have helped their prospects,” Urbaniak added. He said that while “Conservatives have also opposed Trump’s annexationist musings,” they appeared to be aligned with Trump. The Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been compared ideologically with Trump.

“Some of the Conservatives’ populist messaging—anti-‘woke,’ ‘Canada First,’ attacking the mainstream media and de-funding the public broadcaster, slashing the public service, expressing suspicion about universities and experts, and giving derogatory nicknames to political opponents—has echoes of Trump," Urbaniak explained.

Conservatives have a very narrow path to victory

There is still a narrow chance that Poilievre’s Conservatives could pull out enough seats in the Monday polling to form a government. However, the political scientist says that “he would have to quickly make up lost ground in Ontario, especially in the suburban areas around Toronto.”

According to YouGov’s latest polling, it predicts the Conservatives will fall somewhere between 121 seats and 155 seats, far short of the 172-seat majority needed to form a government. In the pollsters model simulations, Liberals win a majority in around 90% of them while the Conservatives win in less than 1 percent.

Get your game on! Whether you’re into NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class soccer goals, or MLB home runs, our app has it all.

Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more – plus, stay updated on the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.