Here’s what you need to know before filling up your tank as oil markets respond to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

U.S. Gas Prices and Global Oil Markets

Gas Price Watch | Tuesday, June 24, 2025: Current prices and forecasts from market analysts

Maite Knorr-Evans

Maite joined the AS USA in 2021, bringing her experience as a research analyst investigating illegal logging to the team. Maite’s interest in politics propelled her to pursue a degree in international relations and a master's in political philosophy. At AS USA, Maite combines her knowledge of political economy and personal finance to empower readers by providing answers to their most pressing questions.

Update: Jun 24th, 2025 05:54 EDT

On Monday night, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that both Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire that would begin on Tuesday morning. In a series of subsequent posts, the president stated that both countries had approached him seeking peace, and as the agreement took effect, he urged both militaries not to violate the treaty.

The news followed a retaliatory attack on Al Udeid airbase, a U.S. base in Qatar, which was coordinated with the Qatari government to avoid destruction and casualties―a sign that Iran was not looking to seek further retaliation from the U.S. So far, there appears to be allegations from Israel that Iran has broken the ceasefire, which could lead to strikes and retalition from Iran. For the safety of all those in the region, we hope that peace can be achieved and maintained.

For those on the other side of the world, here’s what you need to know about gas prices and how the conflict will likely influence them in the coming days. It’s Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

Where do gas prices currently stand?

Though global oil markets have seen prices rise rapidly over the last two weeks, prices at the pump have not paralleled that trend so dramatically. AAA puts the average cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S. at $3.224, up 1.7 percent from a week ago. A year ago, the average price stood at $3.447, and if the ceasefire holds, drivers should be spared from seeing prices rise once again.

Barrel Check: West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude

On Monday, June 23, President Trump warned oil companies against increasing gas prices in the U.S., arguing that any such move would be “playing into the hands of the enemy” and urged caution as he would be “watching” the markets closely.

News of the ceasefire led to a softening in global oil markets, with the two main price metrics, Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), in the U.S. seeing prices fall late on Monday and early Tuesday.

They each track the prices of benchmark crude oils and are helpful when assessing global oil market trends, setting prices for contracts, and understanding regional supply and demand dynamics. The Brent tracks the prices of crude oil sourced from the North Sea, between the U.K. and Norway, while the WTI focuses on oil produced in the U.S., primarily in oil fields in Texas.

Brent Crude: Price/ Barrel:

Brent Crude:

Tuesday, June 24, 2025: $66.55/barrel (+6.3 percent over the last month)
Monday, June 23, 2025: $72.76/barrel (+15.2 percent over the last month)

West Texas Intermediate:

Tuesday, June 24, 2025: $66.28/barrel (+7 percent over the last month)
Monday, June 23, 2025: $74.58 (+19.3 percent over the last month)

How could the conflict lead to higher gas prices?

Currently, there are two primary threats to the supply of petroleum that could lead to higher pump prices.

The importance of the Strait of Hormuz

Though this threat seems to have disappeared overnight as a result of the ceasefire, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran to oil tankers was one of the biggest threats to price stability in global oil markets.

Iran’s government was said to be seriously considering the step, and Reuters reported that the U.S. had been in conversation with Chinese officials to encourage them to pressure Iran to avoid the closure of shipping lanes through the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical supply line for petroleum, as around 20 percent of all oil consumed globally passes through the waterway on a daily basis. Cutting off access would be a major hit to oil producers, who do not have another shortcut for getting their products to markets in Europe and Asia. The closure would extend the journey of oil tankers by an average of 2,500 to 3,000 nautical miles, according to energy analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Dutch financial giant ING reported on Monday, June 23, that cutting off access through the Strait could cause Brent prices to spike to as much as $120 per barrel in the short term. Prices could ease if U.S. production ramps up quickly, but a prolonged closure of the waterway could push prices toward record highs near $150 per barrel.

Do changes in the Brent price impact U.S. gas prices?

Yes. Although the WTI is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil, Brent crude is considered the global pricing standard. Thus, changes in this price have a significant impact on pump prices.

For drivers on the East Coast, the connection is even stronger, as some of the oil refined in these areas is imported and thus relies on the Brent for pricing. When Brent prices rise due to geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions, U.S. gasoline prices typically follow, even during times when domestic oil remains cheaper.

Production interruptions

In addition to disrupting critical shipping lanes, direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure could also lead to shortages, limit supply, and push up prices.

As for petroleum infrastructure, Israel has targeted a fuel depot and a refinery, although so far, there have been no significant disruptions to overall production levels. Additionally, as a member of OPEC, Iran could reduce its oil output—either voluntarily or due to damage—only for another member state to increase production, thereby keeping the organization on track with its pricing targets.

Here’s what the market analysts are saying

ING has increased its price forecasts for 2025, but not dramatically. For the third quarter of the year, which spans from July 1 to September 30, the bank expects the average Brent price to come in around $70/barrel, up from $62/barrel in their previous forecast. As for the final quarter of the year, ING is optimistic and expects prices to fall to around $64/barrel, which is still around $5/barrel higher than they had previously projected. However, should the ceasefire hold, their forecasts are likely to revert to previous estimates, as the conflict will not have the same impact on oil markets as it would have if it were to be prolonged.