German intelligence raises alarm over Putin’s new move with NATO

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin may be planning a full-scale assault on NATO within the next few year, according to reports emanating from German intelligence agencies.

Putin launched a first major invasion into sovereign European land back in 2014 when Russian troops invaded Ukraine, occupying and annexing Crimea. After years in stasis the fighting broke out again in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukrainian territory once again, launching a full-scale land war of the kind not see in Europe for decades.

Now, the UK Defense Journal cites reports from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) that allege that the Kremlin may be planning something on an even larger scale. The report states: “Russia increasingly views the West as a “systemic enemy” and is rebuilding its military capacity with long-term confrontation in mind."

Russia’s military production has accelerated rapidly and is expected to reach €120 billion this year, more than 6% of the nation’s GDP. This represents a four-fold increase in military spending since 2021, the year before the invasion.

What is NATO’s Article 5 guarantee?

For decades, all-out war between Russia and Western powers has been deemed extremely unlikely due to NATO’s Article 5 guarantee. The NATO alliance follows the ‘an attack on one, is an attack on all’ mantra, meaning that all nations would quickly become embroiled in any conflict.

Given that several NATO members and Russia are all nuclear powers, any all-out conflict between the two blocks risks escalating nuclear war. That deterrent, the logic goes, has actually helped to ensure peace.

However while all predecessors had stuck to the guarantee, President Donald Trump has been less solid on Article 5. Last month Trump questioned whether NATO allies would come to the aid of the US if called upon, saying: “Do you think they’re going to come and protect us? They’re supposed to. I’m not so sure.”

Trump added that he’s unhappy with the defence spending of other NATO nations: “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them. I got into a lot of heat when I said that. You said, ‘Oh, he’s violating NATO.’”

By casting some doubt on the efficacy of NATO’s Article 5 guarantee, Trump has undermined a key pillar of defence against an aggressor nation. Putin has grown increasingly expansionist in recent years and may be buoyed by Trump’s admission that the once iron-clad NATO guarantee is beginning to show signs of wear.

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