Good news for Earth: Newly discovered asteroid has a tiny chance of impacting the planet
On Christmas Day 2024 researchers found a huge 196-foot space rock that has only 1 percent of a chance of hitting Earth.
Astronomy doesn’t stop. On Christmas Day 2024 researchers made a significant discovery with the identification of a 196-foot asteroid hurtling towards earth.
The space rock is currently around 27 million miles away from our planet but it’s closing in fast and has a slim chance of striking earth in the near future. Soon after its discovery the asteroid - named 2024 YR4 - leapt to the top of NASA’s Sentry Risk Table, a classification of asteroids with the possibility of hitting earth in the next 100 years.
The object is roughly half as wide as a football field, a huge Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could reach earth within the next eight years
Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. pic.twitter.com/u8PvZg3jaw
— Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025
What are the chances of the asteroid hitting earth?
According to research from NASA’s Center of NEO Studies the asteroid is currently heading away from Earth, but is expected to head in our direction on Dec. 22, 2032. That’s a very long way away by Earth standards but in the vast scale of space that’s well within the margin of error.
Once orbital uncertainties and other variables are considered, analysts put the probability of a direct hit on earth at around 1 in 100. That probablity of hitting our planet could drop to zero, “But it deserves attention,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. “If we don’t find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,” he told Associated Press.
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