Goodbye to NATO? This is what could happen if the US left the organization

The rising tensions between the United States and NATO members—including Turkey, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—have become increasingly difficult to ignore. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a defensive alliance formed in the years following World War II as a deterrent to Soviet expansionism. While its founding membership was smaller, NATO expanded over time, particularly after the return to democracy in countries like Spain and Portugal in the 1970s and the collapse of the USSR, growing to include more than 32 nations.

The dependence of NATO members on US arms imports

Since the tense Oval Office meeting where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faced criticism from both the U.S. president and vice president—as well as the media—divisions have become increasingly evident. Following the meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a televised address, urging his country and other EU members to prepare for a future in which the U.S. may no longer be a reliable partner. “I want to believe the U.S. will stay by our side,” Macron said, before adding that he and his allies “have to be ready if that isn’t the case.” Similar comments were made by Friedrich Merz, the man expected to become Germany’s next chancellor, who before his return to politics served worked as a corporate lawyer in the financial industry.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has been vocal about the bloc’s support for Ukraine and its leader.

Under the Biden administration, NATO became more unified, largely in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, the Trump administration’s push for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has raised questions about NATO’s future, prompting European nations to reassess their defense capabilities. The European Union is now considering changes to its rules to allow member states to take on debt—provided those funds are used for military spending. However, without a defense industry on the scale of the United States or China, the bloc remains heavily reliant on imports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 55% of arms imported to the EU between 2019 and 2023 came from the U.S. Meanwhile, researchers at Bruegel estimate that only about one-fifth of arms purchased by EU governments are produced within Europe.

The unintended consequences for the US defense industry

If NATO were to dissolve, its members would likely seek new sources of arms to reduce their dependence on the U.S. Whether that leads to stronger partnerships with other countries or greater investment in Europe’s defense industry remains to be seen. It is unclear whether this outcome aligns with Trump’s intentions or if it would simply be an unintended consequence of his hardline approach. The defense industry has greatly benefited from NATO members' purchases, but in the future, U.S. firms could find themselves cut out of these markets.

One way for NATO members to regain favor with President Trump could be by increasing their imports from the U.S. defense industry. This creates a contradiction: while the “America First” agenda threatens NATO members' security, rather than addressing the issue internally, some seek to deepen their reliance on the very force contributing to their insecurity.

However, comments from some European leaders suggest that certain factions are looking to link the boost in European defense capabilities with a stronger transatlantic partnership. President von der Leyen has been a vocal proponent of this view in recent days.

Meanwhile, as von der Leyen continues to push for a closer relationship with the US, President Trump has called the European Union, an “abomination” and claimed that the organization “was formed in order to screw the United States.”

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