Grocery food prices: What got more expensive and what got cheaper in the last month?

This week, the US Census Bureau reported that in 2022, child poverty in the United States more than doubled. Rising from a historic low of 5.2 percent in 2021 to 12.4 percent, scholars have pointed to the end of the enhanced child tax credit and inflation as the main drivers of this devastating news.

The changes made to the child tax credit increased the value of the credit as well as the number of families eligible and allowed for the credit to be distributed as monthly payments rather than a lump sum claimed when filing one’s taxes. All of these changes together helped to lift nearly three million children out of poverty, and now, that progress has been erased. For context, from August 2019 to August 2023, grocery prices increased twenty percent, while real wages have remained constant (there have been ups and downs, but when comparing those two figures, there is very little change). But inflation is a fact of life, and consumers should expect prices to rise. Sure, inflation is to be expected, but the destructive role it has played in shrinking purchasing power is new. For instance, from August 2015 to August 2019, grocery prices fell, and real wages increased three percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What is happening today is concerning because the average worker is seeing the value of their income obliterated in terms of purchasing power. For many economically vulnerable households, these economic conditions have driven them into, or in some cases, back into poverty.

Grocery prices up three percent over the last year

Unprecedented inflation driven by corporate greed, geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain challenges left over from COVID shutdowns have forced families to confront higher prices across commodity markets, namely food, energy, and housing. From July to August, grocery prices rose 0.2 percent on average and are up three percent compared to this time last year.

While cereal and meat commodities saw the most significant increases, those gains were not shared across all foods within these categories. When looking at cereals, fresh bread, muffins, and cakes that are available for purchase at grocery stores saw the largest increases in price. Meat markets tell a different story.

Four companies, Cargill, Tyson Foods Inc, JBS SA, National Beef Packing Co, control around eighty-five percent of the beef market for steaks, beef roasts and other cuts (seventy percent of hamburger meat). The poultry industry is also highly consolidated, giving companies high levels of control over price settings in the market. Some analysts have pointed to the implementation of a new animal welfare law in California as one of the drivers of price increases, but other states and regions also saw increases, meaning that other factors should be considered.

Food prices that fell in August

Though on the net, food prices increased, some groups did see drops, namely dairy and produce. Eggs prices, which had been steadily rising for months in 2022, have softened, falling 4.4 percent last month and eighteen percent since August 2022. Butter (-1.8 percent), tomatoes (-1.4 percent), dried beans and lentils (-1.1 percent), and cheese (-0.6 percent) all saw prices fall.