Intelligence service gets its act together and identifies threats to the U.S.: “There is one country that is doing very well”
The intelligence community’s annual report identifies drug cartels as the main threat, names China as the most significant rival, and highlights Russia’s resilience in the face of sanctions.
Each year, U.S. intelligence agencies internally release their Annual Threat Assessment, a document that reflects the administration’s national security priorities.
Under President Donald Trump, the latest analysis shows a very clear shift in focus: drug cartels, especially those trafficking fentanyl, now top the list of risks to the American population.
“The drug cartels were responsible for more than 52,000 synthetic opioid deaths in the twelve-month period ending in October 2024 and facilitated the arrival of nearly 3 million undocumented migrants in 2024, putting our communities at risk,” the report states.
In an unprecedented move, the president has signed an executive order designating certain Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” and has imposed punitive tariffs and migration restrictions to curb the flow of fentanyl from the southern border.
China, the number one rival
Although it may sound repetitive, China accounts for roughly one-third of all references in the document. With the word “China” appearing 103 times, analysts warn:
“Beijing continues to strengthen its conventional and tactical forces, expand its presence in space, and pursue an economic-industrial strategy that challenges U.S. global leadership.”
The report explains that China’s ongoing military spending increases and technological advancements position the giant as the broadest and most powerful military threat to U.S. security. China is now considered the most comprehensive and powerful military threat to U.S. security.
On the other hand, and contrary to what might be expected, Russia receives surprisingly positive remarks. The report praises the resilience of the Russian economy against Western sanctions and notes:
“Putin is willing to pay a very high price to win this strategic rivalry with the United States, both for his personal legacy and his view of world history.”
However, intelligence services warn that a prolonged conflict in Ukraine would pose direct risks to the United States, ranging from uncontrolled escalation to the potential use of nuclear weapons, as well as the erosion of NATO cohesion and increased influence of China and North Korea in Europe. A prolonged war in Ukraine could directly threaten U.S. national security on multiple fronts.
Other threats
The analysis highlights the growing cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, describing it as a new axis that could amplify challenges to U.S. power projection worldwide. In contrast, the Iranian and North Korean regimes are seen as limited threats, more focused on preserving internal power than projecting aggression abroad, and reliant on Beijing and Moscow for support.
For the first time, the document dedicates a substantial section to the Arctic region, particularly Greenland. Analysts state that China views the island as a “future strategic base” and competes with Russia for control over key maritime routes in the Arctic and Atlantic. The large U.S. military base on the island also remains a point of friction with Moscow.
It is striking that Islamic terrorism and climate change receive barely any mention in this edition. ISIS is now confined to its South Asian branch, while Al Qaeda is considered only a regional threat. Climate change, notably absent from the warnings, reflects the Trump administration’s shift toward prioritizing threats perceived as more immediate.
The 2025 Threat Assessment makes it clear that the new orientation of U.S. intelligence prioritizes combating fentanyl cartels, containing China, and offering a surprisingly benign recognition of Russian resilience, while relegating traditional threats like terrorism and climate change to the background. The new intelligence focus shifts dramatically away from traditional global concerns.
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