Is Donald Trump going to get arrested tomorrow? The Stormy Daniels hush money case

Donald Trump said that he expects to be arrested by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office on Tuesday in relation to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. He alleges that he became aware of the move after “illegal leaks from a corrupt & highly political” DA office and called on his supporters to protest.

What has been referred to as a “zombie case” for its on-again, off-again nature is the longest-running investigation into the former president dating back to 2016. So far, one person has been convicted in the case, Michael Cohen, the Trump’s former long-time lawyer and fixer.

Is Donald Trump going to get arrested tomorrow?

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has been presenting evidence to a grand jury in relation to a $130,000 hush payment that Cohen, on behalf of Trump, made to Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford. The money was given to the porn star to cover up an affair Trump allegedly had with her a decade before so that news of it would not get out and hurt his 2016 presidential run.

Bragg appears to be wrapping up his investigation into the secret payments, having invited Trump to speak before the grand jury, which he declined to do. Usually this indicates that an indictment is close according to legal experts. The grand jury will hear testimony from one more witness, at the request of Trump’s lawyers, on Monday. The Manhattan DA’s office for its part has not made any comments on whether or not Trump will be indicted on Tuesday.

What has Trump said about being arrested?

On Saturday, the former president took to Truth Social, which he created after he was banned from mainstream social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. “Illegal leaks from a corrupt & highly political Manhattan district attorney’s office ... indicate that, with no crime being able to be proven, based on an old & fully debunked (by numerous other prosecutors!) fairytale, the far & away leading Republican candidate & former president of the United States of America, will be arrested on Tuesday of next week,” said Trump. “Protest, take our nation back!”

According to reporting an anonymous source said that Trump put out the statement based on news reports that the DA’s office is meeting with law enforcement to prepare for a possible indictment. Were he to be arrested, he would be the first former US president to face legal charges.

Only one conviction in Stormy Daniels hush-money payment

In 2018, Cohen, who has given testimony to the grand jury, was sentenced to three years in prison for his role in the hush money payments. He was released from jail in 2021. Trump’s former lawyer says that he was instructed to make the payments to Daniels and another woman in 2016 to keep his then-boss’ infidelities secret to avoid any detriment to his ongoing campaign.

Trump has always denied the affairs and any wrongdoing. The New York DA’s office previously dropped their own initial investigation at the behest of federal investigators who conducted their own inquiry. But that was ended in 2019. In recent months, the New York DA has reaccelerated the investigation begun years ago.

Questioned about the payments in 2018, Trump initially disputed knowing anything about them. However, he later acknowledged reimbursing his former fixer which he referred to as a “simple private transaction.” However, because they were made during the 2016 campaign they represent illegal campaign donations. The gravity of the charges to be brought against Trump will only be known if and when he is indicted, but Cohen pled guilty to eight charges as part of a plea deal. Two of those were felony campaign finance violations.

What charges will be brought against Trump?

The charges that Bragg may bring against the former president are unclear but would most likely be related to fraudulent bookkeeping. Because the statute of limitations has expired to charge Trump with a misdemeanor, a felony charge could be expected. For this the DA will need to show that in falsifying the business records, there was the intention of committing, aiding or concealing a second crime.

It’s unknown if charges will be brought in relation to campaign-finance violations. Presidential elections fall under federal law, but Bragg may attempt to use state campaign-finance laws, but this is uncharted water and would be legally complicated.