Russia identifies the first four countries that would suffer if the war escalates

Sergei Naryshkin, one of Vladimir Putin’s closest and most trusted allies, has issued a direct threat to Poland and the Baltic states, warning they would face military consequences if the war in Ukraine spirals further out of control. In remarks made to Russia’s state-run TASS news agency, the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) said Moscow and Minsk are prepared to act if there is what he called a “European escalation.”

Russia signals readiness to retaliate in Europe

“They should understand – though they still don’t – that in the event of NATO aggression against Russia and Belarus, the entire alliance will of course suffer. But those who will suffer first, and the most, are the advocates of the kind of ideas coming out of political circles in Poland and the Baltic countries,” Naryshkin warned.

Naryshkin, who has held senior roles across the Russian state – including as Putin’s Chief of Staff and as Speaker of the State Duma – has led the SVR since 2016, overseeing Russia’s global intelligence and counterintelligence efforts. His latest comments mark a sharp escalation in rhetoric, amid heightened tensions across Eastern Europe.

According to Russia’s RIA news agency, Naryshkin emphasized that both Russia and Belarus are “ready to respond” militarily if the war in Ukraine results in direct confrontation with NATO-aligned states in the region.

What NATO would do in case of a Russian attack

Under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, an attack on any member state is considered an attack on all. That means a strike on Poland, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia would trigger a collective response from all 32 NATO members, including newly joined Sweden and Finland. The alliance commands what is widely regarded as the most powerful combined military force in the world, with extensive land, air and naval capabilities.

That said, almost everything Donald Trump has done since taking office appears to have been pleasing to Russia, questioning how the might of the U.S. would support NATO.

While Moscow has frequently criticized NATO’s eastern expansion, a direct conflict with the alliance would represent a historic and potentially catastrophic escalation in the ongoing war.

Why Poland and the Baltics are in Moscow’s sights

In his remarks, Naryshkin accused Poland and the Baltic states of “high aggression” toward Russia and claimed they are constantly “rattling their sabers.” In reality, the four countries – which share direct or maritime borders with Russia – have intensified their defensive postures in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where Moscow now has over 600,000 troops deployed.

Poland, in particular, has previously expressed interest in hosting U.S. nuclear weapons, a move that would significantly raise the stakes in the region. The country shares 210 km of land border and 22 km of maritime border with Russia. Several Baltic nations have also drawn up contingency plans to mine their borders in case of a Russian offensive.

As Western allies continue to bolster defenses along NATO’s eastern flank, Moscow’s threats suggest a growing willingness to frame that buildup as a provocation – one that may, in its view, warrant a military response.

And the one doubt remains: which side is Trump on anyway?

Get your game on! Whether you’re into NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class soccer goals, or MLB home runs, our app has it all.

Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more – plus, stay updated on the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.