The unlikely Asian economy about to pass Russia and China

When people think of Asian nations with the highest income per person, Russia and China usually come to mind. But that perception may shift dramatically in 2025.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Kazakhstan is on pace to post the strongest economy in the post-Soviet space, with per-capita income projected to hit $14,770. That would edge past Russia at $14,260 and China at $13,690.

Oil, services, and infrastructure drive Kazakhstan boom

This surge is powered by oil production, a growing services sector, and major infrastructure modernization. If the forecast holds, Kazakhstan will leave behind regional peers like Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova, whose per-capita incomes range between $8,000 and $9,500. It will also far outpace Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where incomes sit closer to $3,000 and $1,500.

Still, the IMF cautions that Kazakhstan’s outlook is vulnerable to global headwinds, including volatile commodity prices and a potential slowdown in worldwide growth.

Major investments reshape the economy

Despite those risks, the government in Astana has rolled out an ambitious investment program. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov recently told President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that 45 large-scale industrial projects are underway, valued at more than $4.4 billion and expected to create as many as 20,000 new jobs.

Growth across multiple sectors in 2025

The momentum is already visible this year. In the first half of 2025, agriculture expanded by 3.7 percent, retail trade by 8.6 percent, and transport and logistics by more than 22 percent.

Construction also delivered 101 million square feet of new housing, a 5.2 percent increase over the previous year.

Kazakhstan’s strategic location, straddling Europe and Asia, is turning it into a vital commercial crossroads. And as the numbers continue to climb, the country is positioning itself not just as a regional heavyweight but as a potential player in the global economy.

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