“There will be a campaign for him”: Vatican expert predicts who will win the vote in the Conclave and become the new Pope

Following the death of Pope Francis, the cardinals will begin the Conclave in early May—a closed-door meeting in which they will vote to elect his successor as head of the Catholic Church. While the process is meant to be a shared, unifying moment, it could be marked by polarisation and the possible return of the papacy to Europe.

This is the perspective of Giovanni Maria Vian, former editor of L’Osservatore Romano, shared in an interview with La Nación. Vian, author of The Last Pope: Present and Future Challenges of the Catholic Church and professor of Christian literature at La Sapienza University, described Jorge Mario Bergoglio as “an absolutist pope” whose leadership led to “obvious contradictions.” He also stated that the next pope will likely be European.

“Right now, the Church is more divided and polarised than it was when Bergoglio was elected pope in 2013,” he said in the interview.

‘If I were a cardinal, I would vote for Arborelius’

Giovanni, who acknowledges his critical stance toward Pope Francis, believes that after Francis’s death, the main issue for the Conclave will be how to “preserve his legacy—but in a more collegial manner.” As a result, he said, “the new pope will have to distance himself from Francis in some way,” much like what happened following the death of John Paul II.

That role, according to Vian, may not necessarily fall to leading candidates such as Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin or Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Despite the speculation, Giovanni emphasised that “the Conclave is a lottery,” where outcomes are impossible to predict. Still, he insists, “Francis’s successor will be European.”

“Arborelius, the Swede. If I were a cardinal, I would vote for him and campaign for him,” he said.

With the Conclave scheduled to begin sometime between May 5 and 10, many—including Giovanni himself—have expressed concern over how long it may take to elect a new pope.

“If they reach an agreement quickly, it’ll be short. But I doubt it. Many cardinals don’t know each other—they’ll need time to talk and get acquainted,” he noted.

A pontificate of light and shadow

Giovanni describes Francis’s tenure as “a pontificate of light and shadow.” While he believes the late pope advanced the faith more than any of his predecessors, he also calls his leadership “deeply contradictory.”

“Francis, in an age of oversimplified communication, managed to communicate in extraordinary ways. But he was also a contradictory pope—he talked a lot, often improvised, and sometimes said things that contradicted earlier statements,” Vian explained.

One of the key contradictions, according to Giovanni, was the canonisation of John Paul II. He argues that, given the numerous sexual abuse allegations linked to that papacy, canonising him was “imprudent,” amounting to the canonisation of a politician as well.

“That’s exactly why I believe popes should not be canonised,” he said. “Francis is the only pope to have canonised three of his predecessors. His pontificate was full of contradictions and pushed papal absolutism to the extreme.”

Vian also pointed to Francis’s 2022 reform of the Vatican’s fundamental law, which emphasised his role as head of state as Peter’s successor, as further proof of his “obvious” absolutism.

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“But despite everything, we must bow our heads before this pope, who took his pontificate to the extreme,” he concluded. “Just 20 hours before his passing, until his final breath, the Pope wanted to be with the faithful and offer his most solemn blessing, urbi et orbi—to the city and the world.”

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