Uncontrolled re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere of the Russian spacecraft Kosmos 482: impact expected on May 9
A half-ton Russian satellite that was built to land on Venus but never left Earth’s orbit could fall out of the sky intact in a couple weeks.
For the past fifty-three years the Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 has been orbiting around Earth having never made it to its destination, Venus. However, its days floating around the planet may be coming to an end quite soon.
According to Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek “an unusual, uncontrolled reentry will happen” around 8 to 11 May 2025. When the half-ton satellite makes its fiery descent “it will likely survive reentry” and “crash down hard” he warns, similar to a meteorite.
What happened to Russian spacecraft Kosmos 482?
The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was launched on 31 March 1972, just days after its sibling mission Venera 8. While the latter made it to Venus, the Soyuz rocket that carried Kosmos 482 into space malfunctioned after a successful launch to a temporary orbit around Earth.
#TriviaThursday In 1972, the Soviet space program launched Kosmos 482, a probe intended to explore Venus. The rockets failed and the craft got stuck in Earth's orbit, where it has been circling for 48+ years, lapping the planet every 112 minutes. #Venus pic.twitter.com/ooDZkMkWe6
— Heather Archuletta (@Pillownaut) October 2, 2020
Where will Kosmos 482 impact the Earth?
Pinpointing the exact time and location of the 1-meter satellite’s reentry is difficult as it depends on the Sun. Currently solar activity is elevated, which heats up the Earth’s upper atmosphere causing it to expand. That in turn creates more drag on low-orbiting objects, slowing them down. When it does come crashing down, Langbroek calculates that it will be moving at roughly 150 miles per hour upon impact.
Kosmos 482 could reenter Earth’s atmosphere anywhere between the latitudes of 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south according to Langbroek. That means anywhere between the United Kingdom in the north and New Zealand in the south.
Chances of it hitting land though are slim as most of the planet is covered by water. “The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero,” Langbroek told Popular Science.
There is a slim chance that it could burn up in the atmosphere, but it was built with heat-resistant shields. It is also equipped with parachutes, but it has been floating around in space far longer than it was designed for and they may not work.
“I wouldn’t bet on that working now,” said Langbroek. “[I] would assume that, if it survives reentry, it would come down hard.”
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