The Rust Belt refers to regions in several states, including Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. This term is frequently used during election season. While at least portions of these states are considered part of the Rust Belt, some people may also use the term to refer specifically to Midwestern states that are swing states in presidential elections.

In 2020, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia voted for Donald Trump. In 2016, he won those states, plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The last Democratic president to win in Ohio and Indiana was Barack Obama in 2008 (Obama also won Ohio in 2012).

Kentucky, which has voted for a Republican president since 1996, elected a Democratic Governor, Andy Beshear, in 2015 and re-elected him in 2019.

The differences between the Rust Belt and the ‘Blue Wall’

There is some overlap between the Rust Belt and the ‘Blue Wall,’ which consists of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These three states are critical for the Democrats and, before 2016, were seen as a loyal stronghold for party members. However, in 2016, all three saw their electoral college votes go to Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton. In speaking to political scientists and US election expert Dr. David Schultz, Clinton’s loss of these states could have been due to her breaking the fundamental rule of politics ‘taking votes for granted’ and less of a rejection of the Democratic party. All three states have since elected Democratic governors.

Dr. Schultz explained that after Clinton lost the Democratic primaries in caucuses in the three states and Minnesota, she did not make many trips back after she secured the nomination. “She didn‘t go back to have a presence in Michigan or in Wisconsin,“ said the Hamlin University professor, who added that while she ”might have done some fundraising in Allegheny County in Pennsylvania,” she did not undertake any “serious campaigning.” And in my state, Minnesota, she did not come back and campaign. Though she did not campaign in Minnesota, she still won the state’s electoral college votes, but in the other three, the votes went to Donald Trump. For those who study elections closely, this was a massive mistake on the part of the Clinton campaign, not made any better because Donald Trump made these states a focus of his victory strategy.

In 2020, the Biden campaign recognized the mistakes made by the party’s nominee four earlier, and the states became central to the ground game being executed by campaign leaders.

The state of play each of the Blue Wall states

Looking at this election, Dr. Schultz noted that “both campaigns are spending an incredible amount of time in those states, making sure that they’re not ignoring it, and that and again, we’re going to, of course, see how that pays off in terms of political mobilization, and everything come Election Day. ”