Who will win the US Presidential Election 2024: Trump or Harris? First exit polls as candidates hunt 270 Electoral College votes

Exit polls are surveys that voters take as they exit their polling place. This includes interviews with early in-person voters as well as telephone surveys conducted with absentee voters.

Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool on behalf of media companies CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC. According to NBC, around 20,000 voters were surveyed with a sample size for each state between 1,500 and 2,500 respondents.

The survey asks who voters voted for, plus questions abut their background, political opinions, and how they made their choices. These results do not indicate the result of the election itself but rather an insight into the voters' motives. It is important to note there are margins for error and should be treated as estimates, especially early on in the exit poll results.

What the first 2024 exit polls tell us

Swing states:

Early exit polls from CNN have Harris leading in three key swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

NBC exit polls show Donald Trump with a 51% lead over Kamala Harris’ 47% in North Carolina, another key battleground state.

Top issues:

Amongst Harris voters, the state of democracy was their biggest issue, followed by abortion. Amongst Trump voters, the economy was the biggest issue, followed by immigration.

It should be noted that age and gender play a huge part in voter concerns. Voters under 30 are more likely to be concerned about abortion than older voters. Older voters, on the other hand, are more likely to be concerned about the state of democracy. Unsurprisingly, young women are much more concerned about the topic of abortion than young men, who are more concerned about the economy and state of democracy. 46% of women under 30 said that abortion was their biggest issue compared to just 11% of men under 30.

Fair election:

88% of Harris voters trust that the election is being conducted fairly, while just 47% of Trump voters have that same confidence.

How things are going in the U.S.:

Across the board, voters are dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the United States (7 out of 10 voters).

Economy:

While Harris voters are more satisfied with the state of the economy than Trump voters are, most voters agree that the country is financially worse off than it was four years ago.

When they decided:

Most voters made their decision on who to vote for long ago, with 8 out of 10 saying they knew their vote before September. A small number of voters made their decision in the last week. Most of those voters identify as independent.

Violence expected:

A concerning question appeared on the exit polls for the first time in history - whether or not they expect violence following the results of the election. An overwhelming 7 out of 10 voters, majorities on both sides, said yes, they are expecting violence related to the election results.

Scared voters:

No mater which candidate wins, the majority of voters on each side are not only concerned, but scared of what will happen if the other side wins.

70% of Harris voters say they‘d be scared if Trump wins while 24% say they‘ be concerned. 58% of Trump voters say they‘d be scared if Harris wins while 36% say they’d be concerned.

After the exit polls closed

As the exit polls have now come to a close, we have the results.

The majority of Harris voters are between 18-44 years old while the majority of Trump voters are between 45-64 years old. 86% of Black voters, 53% of Latinos, and 55% of Asians voted for Harris, while Trump got the majority of White voters at 55%. More females (53%) voted for Harris while more males (53%) voted for Trump. To Trump supporters, the most important qualities they look for in him as president is the ability to lead (41%) or bring needed change (39%). In contrast, Harris supporters valued good judgment (35%) and caring about people like themselves (28%).