Conspiracy. System failure. NBA Draft Lottery 2025 in the dock

Now, just as the Mavericks have improbably – almost miraculously – landed the No 1 pick in the 2025 draft, it feels ironic (though other words would work too) to recall LeBron James’ recent comments on Pat McAfee’s ESPN show, one of the NBA’s top media partners. Strange things happen in the draft lottery, said the Lakers’ No 23. Things that don’t seem like mere chance.

• 2025 NBA Draft Lottery: full results

LeBron’s words spark more conspiracy feelings

LeBron gave oxygen to one of the NBA’s most persistent and widespread conspiracy theories – that the league manipulates the lottery to direct talent to the franchises that suit its interests best.

His own NBA arrival, he said, was suspect. In 2003, the No 1 pick – clearly destined for him – ended up with the Cleveland Cavaliers, his hometown team. He also cited other notorious cases: Derrick Rose landing with his native Chicago Bulls in 2008, even though they had just a 1.7% chance of winning the top pick; and the launch of the lottery itself in 1985, when college phenom Patrick Ewing went to the New York Knicks – the franchise in the league’s biggest media market.

“They gave the No 1 pick to the Cavaliers,” he said. “And I don’t think that was… coincidence, right? Let’s keep LeBron with the hometown team, send Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, Derrick Rose to the Bulls in Chicago… OK, man, I see it.”

• The ‘frozen envelope’ NBA Draft conspiracy

For believers in these theories, the 2025 draft is a gift. The Mavericks had only a 1.8% chance of drawing the No 1 pick – and still landed it. That gives them the right to draft Cooper Flagg, the next big thing, just months after trading away Luka Dončić to the Lakers. Those inclined to see patterns in ping-pong balls are noting another “lucky” break: in 2003, Cleveland got the No 1 pick and took LeBron. In 2011, after he’d left for Miami, they again won the top pick (just a 2.8% chance) and selected Kyrie Irving. Then again in 2014, with LeBron coming back to Ohio.

Charlotte, in deep crisis after trading away Chris Paul, won the 2012 lottery and the right to draft Anthony Davis. Then in 2019 – rebranded as the Pelicans – they won again, just after Davis left for the Lakers, and took Zion Williamson with only a 6% chance.

Now, that golden ticket – the one that might bring in Flagg or be traded in a blockbuster deal for someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo – has landed with a Mavericks team that began in the No 11 spot and only kept their pick after a coin flip with the Bulls. A franchise in disarray and locked in civil war after losing Dončić. Conspiracy theorists believe this is the league’s goal if the lottery is rigged: to stabilize, pacify and balance teams in key or troubled markets.

It’s been said, but never proven, since that fateful 1985 lottery that sent Ewing to the Knicks. The most dedicated theorists now argue that megatrades like the one that sent Dončić to LA only happen with league approval – and with that future No 1 quietly built in. Ridiculous? Maybe. But no one has disproved it either.

A lottery system under scrutiny

The NBA has spent decades tweaking the lottery – the process that determines draft order and often sparks controversy due to tanking, where teams lose on purpose to increase their odds. The league wants a system that balances two goals: giving struggling teams access to the best young talent and preserving the incentive to compete during the exhausting 82-game regular season.

Tanking, ideally, should be occasional – a late-season issue for teams with nothing left to play for. But it has also been weaponized, as seen in Sam Hinkie’s infamous “Process” with the 76ers, a franchise that lingered at the bottom for years trying to build a title contender. That project, with Joel Embiid as its centerpiece, has yet to even deliver a single Eastern Conference finals appearance.

The current system, flawed but functional, is the result of slow evolution since the league’s birth in 1946 as the BAA. There was no lottery back then – the reverse standings order ruled until 1985. But an early twist, the “territorial pick,” let teams select a local college star within 50 miles of their arena. From 1949 to 1965, 23 such picks were made – 12 became Hall of Famers, four won Rookie of the Year: Tom Heinsohn, Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry Lucas and Oscar Robertson.

The first real reform came in 1966, with a coin toss deciding the top two picks between the worst team in each division. Rudimentary but decisive – in 1979, Magic Johnson went to the Lakers after they beat the Bulls in a coin flip. Had the Bulls won, Magic might have kept them from being so awful in 1984… and Michael Jordan may never have landed in Chicago.

Even then, talk of tanking was in the air. In 1984, Houston were accused of deliberately losing games to secure Hakeem Olajuwon. The league responded in 1985 with its first lottery: all non-playoff teams had an equal chance at the No 1 pick. The rest of the first round remained ordered by record. But the controversy didn’t stop. That very year, the Knicks – with the third-worst record – landed the top pick and Ewing. Many believed the league had rigged it to rescue the struggling New York franchise.

So in 1987, the system changed again: only the top three picks were drawn by lottery, the rest by reverse standings. In 1990 came the weighted lottery, with odds based on record: the worst team had 11 out of 66 chances at the No 1. Then came Orlando’s shock win in 1993, when they landed the No 1 pick (Chris Webber, later traded for Penny Hardaway) despite just a 1.5% chance – the lowest ever.

In response, the league increased the odds for the worst teams and cut them for the best lottery teams. More reforms followed, leading to the system used today, implemented in 2019: the three worst teams now all have a 14% shot at No 1, the fourth-worst gets 12.5%, and the odds fall from there to 0.5% for the best non-playoff team.

The lottery now determines the top four picks, not just three, and teams that finish worst can fall only so far – fifth place for the worst, sixth for second-worst, and so on.

Even so, since 2019, the worst team has never landed the No 1 pick. In fact, for three straight years, that team has fallen all the way to fifth. The goal of discouraging tanking may not be working – and worse, it may be denying the most desperate teams access to franchise-changing stars.

Of the 28 top-four picks awarded since 2019, 15 have gone to teams outside the bottom four in odds, and seven were even further out – spots 8 through 14. Atlanta and Dallas, the last two teams to win the No 1 pick, came into the lottery through the play-in round, just shy of the playoffs.

All of this challenges the competitive logic behind the lottery. Teams in real rebuilds – like the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets, with only 54 combined wins this season – missed out on top-three picks. Meanwhile, the Mavs (with Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson), the Spurs (with Victor Wembanyama and others), and the Sixers (led by Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey) walked away with the top slots.

Whether or not the lottery is rigged, the NBA has a serious question to answer: is the current system doing more harm than good?

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