Knicks flip NBA Finals odds after Game 1 comeback - Spurs no longer favorites
After the New York Knicks’ Game 1 win over the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, the odds have completely flipped for the championship.
The first game of the 2026 NBA Finals completely reshaped expectations. Just days after entering the series as underdogs, the New York Knicks are now favored to win the NBA title following their Game 1 comeback victory over the San Antonio Spurs.
The change in betting markets was immediate, reflecting how dramatically one result can alter the outlook of a Finals matchup. Before the series began, sportsbooks widely viewed San Antonio as the stronger team. But after New York erased a 14-point deficit and won 105–95 on the road, that perception has flipped.
Jalen Brunson clutch with under a minute left 😲
— ESPN (@espn) June 4, 2026
The Knicks take Game 1 in San Antonio! pic.twitter.com/QFQVbFnZ83
What the odds looked like before Game 1
Heading into the Finals, the Spurs were clear favorites across major sportsbooks.
- Spurs opened around -200 to -205 favorites to win the series
- Knicks entered as underdogs at roughly +170
Even in Game 1 specifically, the market leaned heavily toward the Spurs:
- Spurs favored by around 4.5 to 5 points
- Knicks listed near +170 on the moneyline
San Antonio had home-court advantage, a 62-win season, and the presence of Victor Wembanyama anchoring both ends of the floor, so it seemed like a no-brainer.
What changed after the Knicks’ Game 1 win
New York’s comeback win stole home court, and forced sportsbooks to reevaluate the entire series.
Following Game 1:
- Knicks moved to roughly -140 favorites to win the title
- Spurs shifted to around +120 underdogs
That’s a full reversal from pre-series expectations, a rare but not unprecedented reaction when a road team wins the opener in convincing fashion.
The market is now pricing in not just the result, but how it happened. New York didn’t simply hold on to a lead. They took control late, out-executed San Antonio in the fourth quarter, and extended their playoff winning streak to 12 games. That combination of form, resilience, and road success is exactly what betting markets tend to react to most aggressively.
The Knicks won their 12th consecutive playoff game, tying the 1998-99 Spurs for the second-longest winning streak in a single postseason in NBA history.
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) June 4, 2026
The 2016-17 Warriors hold the record with 15 consecutive victories. pic.twitter.com/VzWmOIdQpL
Why Game 1 matters so much historically
There’s also a trend influencing the shift. Historically, teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals go on to win the championship about 70% of the time, a statistic that heavily impacts odds movement after the opener.
At the same time, there’s nuance beneath that number. Recent history shows that winning Game 1 on the road doesn’t always guarantee control of the series, especially if the home team responds quickly in Game 2. That’s part of why the odds, while flipped, are still relatively tight.
What the odds shift says about Game 2
More than anything, the updated odds highlight how much pressure now sits on San Antonio heading into Game 2. A Spurs win would likely stabilize the market again, bringing the series closer to even. But another Knicks victory and a 2–0 lead heading to Madison Square Garden could push New York into overwhelming favorite territory.
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