Arch Manning in the 2026 NFL Draft? This expert thinks family history will dictate his decision to stay at Texas or go pro
Texas quarterback Arch Manning will be eligible for the NFL Draft in 2026, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a sure shot to declare.
Arch Manning comes from a football dynasty - the grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. He was a star quarterback in high school, and he’ll finally get his first season as a full-time starting quarterback in college this season as he starts his third year at the University of Texas.
He committed to UT in 2023, but was named the third-string QB behind Quinn Ewers and Maalik Murphy. He was redshirted at the end of the season, and in 2024, he remained the backup to Ewers, but filled in when he suffered an injury and was named the starter in late September.
While he went on to have a successful season, 2025 will in fact be his first as a full-time starter. That hasn’t stopped football fans and analysts alike from assuming he’ll be a first-round pick - maybe even first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
"Arch Manning is the QB1 in next year's draft."
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) May 4, 2025
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NFL insider says to pump the breaks on Arch Manning assumptions
Though his starts are few, Arch Manning has shown flashes of greatness, and coupled with his lineage, the expectations are high for the young quarterback. Over his last two seasons with limited action, Manning’s thrown for 939 yards, nine passing touchdowns, and added four rushing scores. Those are impressive stats, but they’re not to the level of previous top picks just yet, and one NFL insider has warned that we should pump the breaks on assuming Manning will be a top prospect just yet.
“There’s a 67-yard touchdown run and people go, ‘Oh, it’s Peyton and Eli with wheels.’ But do we really know that yet?” said Albert Breer during an appearance on “The Rich Eisen Show”. “It’s really hard to be that good as a passer and thinker of the game. And we just haven’t seen enough.”
Breer also mentioned the threshold for NFL readiness as 25 college starts, which historically has tended to be the minimum for quarterbacks faring well in the NFL. Manning currently has just two and although we’ll know more at the end of the season, he’ll still have less than 25 at that point. He noted that the Manning family is “acutely aware” of how important that experience is in making it at the professional level.
Breer also pointed out that, not only might Manning not be properly prepared for the NFL by the draft next year, but that he may not actually want to declare for the draft in 2026.
“I think we would be ignoring the family history if we assumed that he was going to be in the 2026 draft,” Breer continued. “Peyton Manning could’ve gone No. 1 in 1997 and stayed an extra year. Eli Manning came back for a fifth season at Ole Miss. There’s precedent here.”
“They’ve done it their way. They wanted to preserve his childhood and college experience,” Breer said.
While it’s very possible that Manning will be a top prospect in the NFL Draft at some point, Breer is simply pointing out that it may not be as soon as next year, and that it’s not necessarily a given. The process, like all the Mannings before him, will be measured and deliberate. As Arch Manning himself pointed out while waiting to be the starter for Texas, “sometimes it’s worth the wait.”
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