Cowboys
Could the Cowboys make the playoffs? We take a look at their chances of making the NFL postseason
The Dallas Cowboys are 4-7 heading into their Week 13 Thanksgiving game, but somehow their postseason chances still aren’t zero.
So you’re sayin' there’s a chance? Technically, yes. It is still statistically possible for the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs this year. Is it likely? Not at all, so don’t go getting those hopes up.
Just when you thought the Cowboys were in for a losing season and had come to terms with getting a top 10 pick in next year’s draft, they go and beat the Washington Commanders. And you think, golly, their next game is a winnable one against the 2-9 New York Giants. Maybe just maybe they’ll get into the playoffs after all! And bam, that’s how a delusional Cowboys fan is born.
But it’s not impossible, is it?
The Cowboys' playoff chances
Spoiler alert: They’re really, really low. As mentioned, the Cowboys are 4-7 heading into Week 13. They are third in the NFC East and the No. 14 seed in the NFC.
Let’s take a look at the standings heading into Week 13.
NFC East Standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Philadelphia Eagles | 9-2 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 7-5 |
| 3. | Dallas Cowboys | 4-7 |
| 4. | New York Giants | 2-9 |
NFC Wild Card Standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| WC1 | Minnesota Vikings | 9-2 |
| WC2 | Green Bay Packers | 7-3 |
| WC3 | Washington Commanders | 7-5 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals | 6-5 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 5-6 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 5-5 |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-6 |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | 4-7 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 4-7 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-7 |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | 3-8 |
| 16 | New York Giants | 2-9 |
The Cowboys are indeed only behind the Commanders by 2.5 games for the final Wild Card spot, but there are six other NFC teams standing between them and that spot as well.
These standings give the Cowboys about a 3.5% chance of making it to the playoffs this year and a less than 0.1% chance to win the division. For them to pull it off, they’d almost need to win out (with Cooper Rush at quarterback) and also have the Eagles basically collapse.
Here’s a look at the Cowboys' upcoming schedule:
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | vs Giants | 4:30 p.m. |
| 14 | Monday, December 9 | vs Bengals | 8:15 p.m. |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs Buccaneers | 8:20 p.m. |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Eagles | 4:25 p.m. |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs Commanders | 1 p.m. |
You may notice that their next four games are against sub-.500 teams. Sure, it’s possible they can win those. But they’ll end the season against their divisional rivals Eagles and Commanders again, which will be the toughest test.
Still, everything would have to go right for Dallas, who have a less than 0.1% chance of making anything above the sixth seed, and just a 2.7% chance of making the seventh seed.
So yeah, there’s a chance, but this is the Cowboys we’re talking about. Despite any odds, I’d bet on them losing to the 2-9 Giants at home on Thanksgiving before them making it to the playoffs.
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