NFL Draft 2026: Risers and fallers that shook up Round 1 expectations

The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft rarely goes exactly as planned, and this year was no exception.

From unexpected early selections to surprising slides down the board, Thursday night reshaped how teams and fans viewed this year’s class. While some prospects capitalized on late momentum and heard their names called earlier than projected, others were left waiting longer than expected as front offices made bold, and sometimes puzzling, decisions.

Here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers from Round 1.

Biggest risers from Round 1

Carnell Tate, WR, Titans (No. 4 overall)

• Pre-draft projection: Mid first round

Tate was one of the biggest draft night risers in the first round, jumping ahead of consensus projections to go No. 4 overall to the Titans. While some pre-draft boards had him slotted in the mid-to-late teens, and in some cases outside the top 10 entirely, Tennessee clearly saw a different level of upside.

The Ohio State receiver never hit 1,000 yards in a season in Columbus, but his combination of production, reliability, and downfield efficiency made him a steady force in a loaded Buckeyes offense. His stock surged late in the process despite modest testing numbers, ultimately culminating in a top-five selection that few outside the Titans’ draft room saw coming.

Ty Simpson, QB, Rams (No. 13 overall)

• Pre-draft projection: Late first-round to early second-round

Simpson was one of the biggest surprise risers of the first round after the Rams selected him at No. 13, well ahead of most projections that had him landing in the late first or early second round.

The Alabama quarterback entered the draft with limited starting experience with just one full season as a college starter, but still managed to climb boards thanks to his arm talent, poise, and perceived upside in a traditional drop-back role. Many teams viewed him as a developmental quarterback rather than an immediate first-round investment, making his selection in the top half of the opening round one of the more unexpected quarterback moves of the night.

Caleb Banks, DT, Vikings (No. 18 overall)

• Pre-draft projection: Mid-to-late second-round

Banks’ selection at No. 18 qualifies as one of the more surprising “riser” moments of Round 1, not because of a lack of talent, but because of where most expected him to land. Entering the draft, the Florida defensive tackle was widely viewed as a Day 2 prospect or, at best, a late first-round flier due to durability concerns and inconsistent production. A foot injury that derailed much of his 2025 seasonand even resurfaced during the pre-draft process raised red flags for teams, causing his stock to fluctuate heavily in the weeks leading up to the draft.

Still, the upside has always been undeniable. At 6-foot-6 and over 320 pounds, Banks brings rare size, explosiveness, and movement ability for an interior lineman, with flashes of dominance that can completely disrupt offenses when everything clicks.

Biggest fallers from Round 1

Arvell Reese, EDGE/LB, Giants (No. 5 overall)

• Pre-draft projection: No. 2

Reese technically still landed in the top five, but relative to expectations, his slide to No. 5 qualifies as one of the most notable “fallers” of Round 1. The Ohio State standout was widely viewed as a top-two lock in the weeks leading up to the draft, frequently mocked to the New York Jets at No. 2 and, in some cases, ranked as the No. 1 overall prospect on big boards.

Instead, Reese watched three unexpected selections come off the board before hearing his name called by the New York Giants at No. 5, a slight but meaningful drop given the hype surrounding his ceiling. Part of that slide can be attributed to how teams weighed his upside against his relative inexperience. Reese was a one-year full-time starter at Ohio State and remains a developing pass rusher, even as his athletic traits jump off the tape.

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