If this happens this weekend, history says they’re Super Bowl-bound
As we head into the Divisional Round this weekend, the teams who advance to the Super Bowl may reveal themselves early with this hidden stat.
Every NFL playoff game counts the same in the standings, but history suggests they don’t all mean the same. Over the last decade-plus of Super Bowl runs, a clear pattern has emerged. Teams that reach the Super Bowl usually announce themselves in the Divisional Round. Close wins can get teams to the next round, but it’s the convincing wins that tend to get teams to February.
The Divisional Round stat that keeps predicting Super Bowl teams
Look back at recent Super Bowl participants and one detail keeps repeating. Almost all of them won their Divisional Round game by at least one full score, often by more.Not a last-second field goal. Not a survive-and-advance escape. But a win that created real separation on the scoreboard.
The Wild Card Round is a different story. Teams are sometimes coming off short weeks, matchups are often uneven, and emotions and adrenaline mask flaws. The Divisional Round, on the other hand, removes those excuses. By the end of the Divisional Round, Super Bowl teams usually look like they belong there.
Every remaining team is talented. Every coaching staff has film. Every weakness is targeted. That’s why how a team wins in this round matters more than simply that they win.
Teams that dominate here tend to show three things that carry all the way to the Super Bowl:
- The ability to build and protect a lead
- Defensive consistency across all four quarters
- Offensive patience when the game script tightens
As the 2025–26 Divisional Round kicks off, the most important number on the scoreboard may not be who wins, but by how much. A one-score nail-biter might be thrilling, but a 10-point win sends a different message entirely.
By Sunday night, one or two teams may separate themselves not just as conference finalists, but as legitimate Super Bowl teams. History says that when a team controls its Divisional Round game, the path ahead leads to the big game.
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