NFL playoff picture: Who’s in and who’s out after Week 12?

The NFL calendar is closing in on December, which means the stakes climb by the week. With six full slates left before the postseason bracket locks into place, every win, loss, and tiebreaker is reshaping the road to January football. The standings aren’t finalized yet, but the battles for division crowns, Wild-Card berths, and top seeds are heating up fast.

Powerhouses like the Rams and Eagles are holding their ground, while usual favorites, including the Chiefs, are clamoring for renewed relevance. Meanwhile, surprise risers in both conferences have turned the playoff race into a chaotic sprint.

Here’s how the landscape looks right now, along with what lies ahead for every major contender.

AFC Standings

1. New England Patriots (10-2)
2. Denver Broncos (9-2)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
8. Houston Texans (6-5)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
11. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-8)
13. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
15. New York Jets (2-9)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-10)

AFC Playoff Picture

1. New England Patriots (10-2)

Behind steady quarterbacking by Drake Maye and a defense that rarely surrenders big plays, New England is positioned to reclaim the AFC East. With three division games still ahead, their trajectory toward a first-round bye remains within reach.

Playoff Probability: 99%

Remaining schedule: vs Giants, vs Bills, @ Ravens, @ Jets, vs Dolphins

2. Denver Broncos (9-2)

The Bronco’s combination of efficient offense and a revived pass rush has turned them into one of the conference’s most complete teams. December divisional matchups will likely decide whether they can stop Kansas City from taking the AFC West for the 10th straight season.

Playoff Probability: 96%

Remaining schedule: @ Commanders, @ Raiders, vs Packers, vs Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs Chargers

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)

The Colts keep winning close games thanks to tough defense and timely offense, but one of the league’s most demanding remaining schedules means little margin for error down the stretch.

Playoff Probability: 86%

Remaining schedule: vs Texans, @ Jaguars, @ Seahawks, vs 49ers, vs Jaguars, @ Texans

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Ravens’ defense has become its backbone while the offense continues to find its rhythm. They’re in a tight divisional race, but the schedule provides chances to take control with several head-to-head AFC North battles ahead.

Playoff Probability: 80%

Remaining schedule: vs Bengals, vs Steelers, @ Bengals, vs Patriots, @ Packers, @ Steelers

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

With injuries affecting the offensive line, Los Angeles faces a daunting December slate. The Wild-Card picture is tight, and the Chargers will need cleaner football to hold their ground.

Playoff Probability: 57%

Remaining schedule: vs Raiders, vs Eagles, @ Chiefs, @ Cowboys, vs Texans, @ Broncos

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)

Jacksonville regained momentum with back-to-back gritty wins. Their remaining stretch features several familiar AFC South opponents, giving them clear paths to solidify their playoff standing, or fall behind.

Playoff Probability: 69%

Remaining schedule: @ Titans, vs Colts, vs Jets, @ Broncos, @ Colts, vs Titans

7. Buffalo Bills (7-4)

The Bills’ offense can soar when Josh Allen takes charge, but defensive inconsistency has made them unpredictable. Still, a Wild-Card berth is firmly in sight with a handful of winnable games left.

Playoff Probability: 85%

Remaining schedule: @ Steelers, vs Bengals, @ Patriots, @ Browns, vs Eagles, vs Jets

AFC Teams Still in the Mix

The Texans, Chiefs, and Steelers all sit just outside the bracket. The Texans lean on a top-tier defense while awaiting full offensive health. The Chiefs finally rediscovered some late-game magic, but consistency remains a hurdle. The Steelers’ defense oscillates between dominant and vulnerable, leaving their playoff fate squarely in the balance.

NFC Standings

1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
3. Chicago Bears (8-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
6. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
7. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
8. Detroit Lions (7-4)
9. Carolina Panthers (6-6)
10. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
11. Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
12. Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
13. Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
14. Washington Commanders2 (3-8)
15. New Orleans Saints (2-9)
16. New York Giants (2-10) *ELIMINATED

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2)

Matthew Stafford remains in peak form, and the Rams have handled business against weaker opponents. With several favorable matchups ahead, the NFC’s top seed is theirs to lose.

Playoff Probability: 99%

Remaining schedule: @ Panthers, @ Cardinals, vs Lions, @ Seahawks, @ Falcons, vs Cardinals

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

The defending champs have steadied themselves with defense and opportunistic offense. Their schedule toughens late, but the No. 1 seed remains attainable if they continue stacking wins.

Playoff Probability: 99%

Remaining schedule: vs Bears, @ Chargers, vs Raiders, @ Commanders, @ Bills, vs Commanders

3. Chicago Bears (8-3)

Chicago’s young offense flashes brilliance but still battles growing pains. The upcoming stretch, heavy on divisional and playoff-caliber opponents, will reveal whether they’re true contenders or merely holding a high seed by record.

Playoff Probability: 61%

Remaining schedule: @ Eagles, @ Packers, vs Browns, vs Packers, @ 49ers, vs Lions

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)

Tampa Bay once again finds itself battling for control of the NFC South. A soft closing run gives them a strong chance to finish atop the division despite some uneven performances.

Playoff Probability: 85%

Remaining schedule: vs Cardinals, vs Saints, vs Falcons, @ Panthers, @ Dolphins, vs Panthers

5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)

Seattle’s defense continues to set the tone, though they’ve stumbled at times against top competition. With several games against inexperienced quarterbacks ahead, the Seahawks are well-positioned for a postseason return.

Playoff Probability: 92%

Remaining schedule: vs Vikings, @ Falcons, vs Colts, vs Rams, @ Panthers, @ 49ers

6. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)

Green Bay remains inconsistent but dangerous. Four remaining divisional games mean the NFC North is still wide open, and the Packers hold numerous paths to playoff entry, though none will be easy.

Remaining schedule: @ Lions, vs Bears, @ Broncos, @ Bears, vs Ravens, @ Vikings

Playoff Probability: 76%

7. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

With Brock Purdy finally back under center, San Francisco’s offense has regained its explosiveness. The defense has a manageable schedule ahead, giving the 49ers a realistic chance to climb higher than the final Wild-Card slot.

Playoff Probability: 86%

Remaining schedule: @ Browns, vs Titans, @ Colts, vs Bears, vs Seahawks

NFC Teams Still in the Hunt

The Lions, Panthers, and several outside hopefuls remain alive. The Lions boast firepower but may have waited too long to find consistency. The Panthers need a late-season surge from Bryce Young to contend for the NFC South. Others lurk just behind, but the window is narrowing.

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Chiefs

The Chiefs’ road to playoffs

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