Playoff elimination alert: Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions preview
Thursday night’s Cowboys vs Lions clash is essentially a playoff eliminator, with both teams battling to stay in the NFC postseason picture.
As the 2025 NFL season nears its final stretch, the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions find themselves in a high-stakes primetime showdown. Both teams sit outside the playoff picture, and Thursday night’s game at Ford Field is shaping up as effectively an elimination matchup for either side.
The Lions-Cowboys odds and what a win or loss would do to each team
The Lions (7-5) are reeling after a 31-24 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, which pushed their playoff odds down significantly. According to various models, Detroit’s postseason chances now sit anywhere from 30% (New York Times) to 50% (FTN Fantasy). A win over Dallas would swing those numbers back up dramatically, giving the Lions a potential 54% shot at the playoffs, while a loss could drop them to just 10%.
The Cowboys (6-5-1), meanwhile, are on a three-game winning streak and have surged into contention in the NFC standings. The Cowboys’ offense, led by Dak Prescott and his dynamic receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, ranks first in the league in total offense and passing yards. A victory against Detroit would not only extend that streak but also improve their playoff probability from 25% to 42%, keeping their postseason hopes alive.
The stakes are even higher given the NFC North race. The Lions are currently a half-game ahead of the Cowboys but trail the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. This game offers Detroit a chance to stay competitive in the division while simultaneously derailing the Cowboys’ climb. For Dallas, it’s an opportunity to leapfrog a rival in the playoff race while continuing to build momentum for the final five games of the season.
Injuries could play a decisive role. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit’s star wideout, is questionable after an ankle issue sustained against Green Bay. His potential absence could significantly hinder the Lions’ passing attack. On the Cowboys’ side, defensive reinforcements, including the potential return of Trevon Diggs, could tilt the balance in Dallas’ favor.
“This is essentially a playoff game,” said Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb. “The atmosphere, playing away, knowing everyone’s watching...this is the kind of game that defines your season. We’ve won three in a row; why not make it four?”
History adds another layer of intrigue. Dallas leads the all-time series 19-13, but Detroit handed the Cowboys a brutal 47-9 loss in their last meeting in October 2024. Both teams will be looking to assert themselves, knowing that the outcome could dramatically reshape the playoff landscape.
After Thursday, the schedule remains tough for both squads. Detroit travels to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams, while Dallas hosts the Minnesota Vikings. But for one night, all eyes will be on Ford Field, where playoff hopes are hanging by a thread and every play matters.
Playoff swing scenarios: How this game could change everything
| Team | Current Playoff Odds | Odds if Win Thursday | Odds if Loss Thursday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 38% | 54% | 10% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25% | 42% | 19% |
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