Week 16 NFL Playoff scenarios: Broncos can lock up No. 1 seed as postseason picture sharpens

The NFL playoff picture finally snapped into focus after Week 15, but the chaos is far from over. The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos became the first teams to officially punch their tickets to the postseason, while the Kansas City Chiefs were shockingly eliminated for the first time since 2014. With the field beginning to take shape, we now look forward to Week 16 as one of the most important weekends of the 2025 regular season.

By the time this week is over, as many as nine additional teams could clinch a playoff berth, and Denver has a path to home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

NFL Playoff picture after Week 15

Teams that have clinched a playoff berth:

• Denver Broncos (AFC)
• Los Angeles Rams (NFC)

Teams officially eliminated from playoff contention:

• Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
• Miami Dolphins (AFC)
• Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
• New York Jets (AFC)
• Cleveland Browns (AFC)
• Tennessee Titans (AFC)
• Las Vegas Raiders (AFC)
• Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
• New York Giants (NFC)
• Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
• New Orleans Saints (NFC)
• Washington Commanders (NFC)
• Arizona Cardinals (NFC)

What to watch in Week 16

• Nine teams can clinch a playoff spot this weekend
• Denver can lock up the AFC No. 1 seed and home-field advantage
• Multiple division races remain separated by one game or less, keeping pressure high across the league

Week 16 playoff-clinching scenarios

AFC Clinching Scenarios

Buffalo Bills (10-4)

Matchup: @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday, Dec. 21)

Buffalo controls much of its own destiny and can clinch a playoff berth with a strong showing paired with help elsewhere. Here’s what they need:

• Win (vs Browns) and Houston Texans loss (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
• Win (vs Browns) and Indianapolis Colts loss (vs San Francisco 49ers)

Denver Broncos (12-2)

Matchup: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, Dec. 21)

Already playoff-bound, Denver now has bigger goals in mind, including the conference’s top seed.

Clinch AFC West:

• Win (vs Jaguars) and Los Angeles Chargers loss (vs Dallas Cowboys)

Clinch AFC No. 1 seed:

• Win (vs Jaguars)
• Chargers loss (vs Dallas)
• Patriots loss (vs Baltimore Ravens)
• Bills loss (vs Cleveland Browns)

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)

Matchup: @ Denver Broncos (Sunday, Dec. 21)

The Jaguars are right in the thick of the AFC race and can secure their spot in the playoffs with help. Here’s what they need:

• Win (vs Broncos) and Houston Texans loss (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
• Win (vs Broncos) and Indianapolis Colts loss (vs San Francisco 49ers)

Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)

Matchup: @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, Dec. 21)

A road win combined with the right results elsewhere could send the Chargers back to the postseason. Here’s what they need:

• Win (vs Cowboys) and Houston Texans loss (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
• Win (vs Cowboys) and Indianapolis Colts loss (vs San Francisco 49ers)

New England Patriots (11-3)

Matchup: @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, Dec. 21)

The Patriots have one of the clearest paths to clinching:

• Win (vs Ravens)
• Houston Texans loss (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
• Indianapolis Colts loss (vs San Francisco 49ers)

NFC Clinching Scenarios

Chicago Bears (10-4)

Matchup: vs Green Bay Packers (Saturday, Dec. 20)

A rivalry win could go a long way toward securing a playoff return. Here’s what the Bears need:

• Win (vs Packers) and Detroit Lions loss (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)

Matchup: @ Chicago (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Green Bay’s path mirrors Chicago’s exactly, setting up a massive Saturday night showdown.

• Win (vs Bears) and Detroit loss (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)

Matchup: @ Washington Commanders (Saturday, Dec. 20)

The NFC East remains unsettled, but the Eagles can close the door this week. Here’s how:

Clinch NFC East:

• Win (vs Commanders)
• Dallas Cowboys loss (vs Chargers)

San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Matchup: @ Indianapolis Colts (Monday, Dec. 22)

San Francisco is on the verge of another postseason run. Here’s their clear path:

• Win (vs Colts)
• Detroit Lions loss (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Matchup: @ Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, Dec. 18)

Seattle has one of the simplest scenarios of the week:

• Win (vs Rams)
• Detroit Lions loss (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Week 16 figures to be one of the most decisive weekends of the season, with playoff tickets, division crowns, and top seeds all potentially decided before the calendar flips to January.

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