Who will the 49ers play in the playoffs? Breaking down Week 18 seeding scenarios

The San Francisco 49ers enter the final week of the regular season with more on the line than almost any team in the NFC. A Week 18 showdown with the Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium will determine whether San Francisco earns the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, or whether the 49ers are forced onto the road immediately in the Wild Card round.

Thanks to an unexpected loss by the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night in Week 17, the NFC playoff picture has opened up even further. Here’s how everything can shake out.

What is already locked in

Before diving into the chaos, a few things are already settled:

• The No. 1 seed will be either the 49ers or the Seahawks
• The Bears and Eagles will be the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, with their order determined in Week 18
• The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed
• The No. 4 seed will come from the NFC South, either the Panthers or Buccaneers

That leaves the No. 1, No. 5, and No. 6 seeds to be sorted out between the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams (although the Rams can no longer earn the top seed).

How the 49ers get the No. 1 seed

It’s simple: If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, they earn the No. 1 seed. That win would give San Francisco:

• A first-round bye
• Home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs
• No Wild Card game

Win, and nothing else matters.

What happens if the 49ers lose?

If San Francisco loses to Seattle, the door opens to multiple outcomes depending on what the Rams do.

Scenario 1: Seahawks win, Rams lose

• No. 1 seed: Seahawks
• No. 5 seed: 49ers
• No. 6 seed: Rams

In this case, the 49ers would still avoid the lowest Wild Card spot and likely face the NFC South champion (Panthers or Bucs) in the first round.

Scenario 2: Seahawks win, Rams win

• No. 1 seed: Seahawks
• No. 5 seed: Rams
• No. 6 seed: 49ers

This is the worst-case scenario for San Francisco. Both they and L.A. would finish 12-5, but the Rams would win the tiebreaker. The head-to-head series was split, both teams would be 4-2 in the division, and Los Angeles holds the edge in common opponents. That would push the 49ers down to the No. 6 seed.

Why the No. 5 seed matters if the 49ers miss No. 1

If the 49ers don’t earn the bye, No. 5 is far preferable to No. 6.

As the No. 5 seed, San Francisco would face the NFC South champion, likely either:

• The Buccaneers, who have lost seven of their last eight games, or
• The Panthers, a team the 49ers have already beaten

As the No. 6 seed, the 49ers would likely travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles, one of the NFC’s toughest road environments.

Full Week 18 seeding breakdown involving the 49ers

• 49ers win:
  • No. 1: 49ers
  • No. 5: Seahawks
  • No. 6: Rams
• 49ers lose, Rams win:
  • No. 1: Seahawks
  • No. 5: Rams
  • No. 6: 49ers
• 49ers lose, Rams lose:
  • No. 1: Seahawks
  • No. 5: 49ers
  • No. 6: Rams

The game between the 49ers and Seahawks kicks off this Saturday, January 3 at 8 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium in California. You can follow along with our live text coverage of the game right here on AS USA.

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