‘Big Data’ singles out the 2025 Champions League winner

Real Madrid go into the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 as clear favourites against Atlético Madrid according to the Opta supercomputer.

Ahead of the second leg of the Madrid derby, “Los Blancos” would progress in 72.4% of the 10,000 simulations carried out, winning the match at the Metropolitano 36.1% of the time with Atlético’s chances of advancing reduced to 27.6%.

FC Barcelona are widely expected to progress after their away win against Benfica and have a 88.8% chance of making it to the quarter-finals according to the simulations carried out.

Arsenal are the best placed team to advance after the Gunners comprehensive 7-1 win in the first leg against PSV and Mikel Arteta’s men are given a 100% chance of making it through.

Inter Milan, who won the first leg against Feyenoord (0-2) are also highly fancied by the data to advance with a 96.8% chance of advancing to the next round. A stat not dissimilar is that of Bayern Munich as the Bavarians are given a 95.7% chance of a quarter-final berth after their impressive first leg 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa are also in the driving seat with a 94.8% chance after their first leg away 1-3 win against Bruges, while Borussia Dortmund and Lille face the most even tie. The German side have a 50.8% chance of progressing against the 49.2% for the French side..

Desite Liverpool vs PSG being one of the most closely contested in the first leg, the English side secured a valuable late goal in Paris and now Luis Enrique’s men are up against it with the Anfield side progressing in 74.9% of simulations.

Liverpool, UCL favourites

When it comes to outright Champions League winners, the Opta supercomputer singles out one clear favourite with the Premier League leaders remaining favourites to win the final title with a probability of 23.9%.

This is an increase of 4.2 points more than in the previous prediction. Barcelona remain second favourites with 16.9%, closely followed by Arsenal with 16.1%. Real Madrid are seen as fifth favourite to bag a 16th European Cup on a much lower percentage of 8.9%. City rivals Atlético Madrid are just given a 1.2% chance in the simulations of lifting the trophy at the end of May in Munich.

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