Manchester City vs Arsenal: What each result means for the Premier League title race

Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday, April 19, in a top-of-the-table clash that could have a decisive say in this season’s Premier League title race.

The Gunners, who have led the standings since November, now hold a six-point lead over Pep Guardiola’s side, who also have a game in hand. But last weekend’s 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth, coupled with City’s 3-0 win away to Chelsea, means Arsenal’s advantage is far less comfortable than it was just over a week ago.

A season of shifting momentum

A month ago, Mikel Arteta’s side were chasing an unprecedented quadruple. However, a defeat in the EFL Cup final, to City of all teams, and a shock FA Cup exit at the hands of Southampton have added to the growing narrative that Arsenal are letting things slip in the final stages of the season, not for the first time.

The London club did progress to the semifinals of the Champions League, where they will face Atlético Madrid, after defeating Sporting CP in the quarterfinals. Still, they are now in danger of being pipped at the post in the Premier League.

What if Arsenal beat Manchester City?

A victory at the Etihad on Sunday would put them firmly back in the driving seat. A positive result in Manchester would extend their lead to nine points with just six games left for City to play (five for Arsenal). The psychological boost from beating their title rivals away from home would likely be enough to see them get over the line and claim a first Premier League title since 2004.

Arsenal, however, do not have happy memories of playing at the Etihad, where they have not won since January 2015.

In their last 11 visits to City, they have lost eight times, with three draws. That includes a 4-1 humbling as league leaders in late April 2023, a result that proved key in City ultimately winning the 2022-23 Premier League title.

What a draw would mean

A draw would ensure Arsenal take a six-point lead into the final stretch and would likely be seen as a missed opportunity by City. Their game in hand, at home to Crystal Palace on an as yet unspecified date, would give them the chance to cut the gap to three points and set up an extremely tense finish, in which Arteta’s side would be desperate to avoid mistakes.

What if Manchester City beat Arsenal?

A City victory, however, would swing momentum firmly toward Manchester, even if they would still only be able to draw level on points with Arsenal if they win their game in hand.

Would Arsenal be able to bounce back from the crushing disappointment of missing out on both domestic cups and potentially surrendering what was once a sizeable lead at the top of the table?

Goal difference could come into play

If the two teams finish level on points, goal difference is the first tiebreaker in the Premier League. As it stands, Arsenal are three goals better off, +38 to +35, a marginal advantage that could easily shift in the final weeks of the season.

The final stretch begins

The final stretch begins at the Etihad on Sunday, where a win for either side could prove to be a decisive blow to their biggest rival, whether in arithmetic terms or psychological ones.

Arsenal remaining fixtures

• Sun, April 19 vs. Man City (A)
• Fri, April 25 vs. Newcastle (H)
• Sat, May 2 vs. Fulham (H)
• Sun, May 10 vs. West Ham (A)
• Sun, May 17 vs. Burnley (H)
• Sun, May 24 vs. Crystal Palace (A)

Manchester City remaining fixtures

• Sun, April 19 vs. Arsenal (H)
• Sat, April 26 vs. Burnley (A)
• Sun, May 4 vs. Everton (A)
• Fri, May 9 vs. Brentford (H)
• Sat, May 17 vs. Bournemouth (A)
• Sun, May 24 vs. Aston Villa (H)

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