MLS Decision Day: what happens if teams are tied on points at the end of the regular season?

MLS 2023 Decision Day is upon us and the fate of 10 teams will be decided over the coming hours. Will they qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs and keep their dreams of glory alive? Or will it be time to pack their suitcases and head off on vacation? The 2024 season, which will begin next February, is a long way off.

Who can qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs in the Eastern Conference?

In the Eastern Conference, we already know the seven automatically qualifiers for Round One (FC Cincinnati, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union, Columbus Crew, New England Revolution, Atlanta United and Nashville SC), which means the two remaining spots up for grabs are for the wild card round.

The teams finishing eighth and ninth in the regular season while play a one-off game to clinch the last MLS Cup Playoffs spot. Heading into the last game, Montreal are in pole position on 41 points, while New York Red Bulls, Chicago Fire and Charlotte FC are all locked on 40 points. Behind them, NYCFC (38 points) would need a victory and for other results go their way to qualify.

DC United have already played their final MLS fixture so, despite being in 9th as it stands, cannot mathematically make it to the post-season. Inter Miami and Lionel Messi, of course, have also failed qualify.

Who can qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs in the Western Conference?

In the West, six teams (St. Louis City, LAFC, Seattle Sounders, Houston Dynamo, Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps) are assured of their Playoffs places, with five others fighting it out for one automatic berth and the two wild card spots.

Portland Timbers are one of three teams on 43 points, along with FC Dallas and the San Jose Earthquakes. Just behind them, and currently outside the playoff places, are Sporting Kansas City and Minnesota on 41 points. Any of those teams could secure the final guaranteed playoff place (7th) but could also miss out on the post-season entirely.

What tiebreakers are used in MLS?

Such is the closeness of the teams in both conferences, there is a high probability that two or more could end the regular season on the same number of points, in which case a tiebreaker would be needed to decide which one finishes higher and, potentially, qualifies for the Playoffs.

Unlike in other elite-level soccer competitions, in which overall goal difference or head-to-head records are typically used to separate teams tied on points, the total number of games won is the first tie-breaker used in MLS.

Goal difference across the season is next, followed by total goals scored. In the unlikely event that teams still can’t be separated, MLS has seven further tiebreakers, with the last one being a coin toss (two teams) or drawing of lots (three or more).

The full list of tiebreakers is: