Real Madrid faces big decision after Champions League exit

Real Madrid’s season is effectively over, barring a miracle in La Liga. They were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Albacete, showed flashes of quality in the league before falling behind a more consistent Barcelona – now nine points clear – and were beaten across two legs by Bayern Munich in the Champions League, even if they proved capable of competing with Europe’s elite.

It adds up to another campaign without major silverware, following last season’s disappointment. The foundations of the club’s structure are beginning to tremble. At Real Madrid, a trophyless year often signals change on the bench. The club has yet to reveal its hand, but the future of Álvaro Arbeloa is clearly the first decision awaiting executives in Valdebebas. That call will not come immediately, but is expected once the league season concludes at the end of May.

Arbeloa’s case is not straightforward. There are arguments both for and against keeping him. From a broader perspective, one reality stands out: he has not improved on Xabi Alonso – in fact, results have declined. In 21 games, Arbeloa has recorded 13 wins, a 62% success rate. Alonso, by contrast, won 24 of 34 games, a 71% clip.

Perhaps more concerning is the number of defeats. Arbeloa’s side has lost seven times – 33% of his matches, a strikingly high figure. Alonso suffered six losses, 18%, despite managing 13 more games. Domestic form has been particularly inconsistent, with dropped points against Osasuna, Getafe, Mallorca and Girona.

In Europe, however, there are mitigating factors. Arbeloa’s Madrid showed resilience in the Champions League, something the club values above all else. After stumbling in Lisbon and being forced into the playoff round, they eliminated José Mourinho – his former mentor – and then Pep Guardiola, long regarded as Spain’s benchmark coach. Bayern ultimately ended their run, but not without a fight, with Madrid competitive until the closing stages.

Another point in his favor is the dressing room. Arbeloa has largely calmed internal tensions that had simmered under Alonso. Vinícius Júnior’s situation was the most visible, though others – Jude Bellingham, Federico Valverde, Trent Alexander-Arnold – were also affected. Yet new issues have surfaced under his leadership, involving Dean Huijsen, Miguel Carreras and Raúl Asencio. There has also been a sense that Kylian Mbappé was more comfortable under Alonso, delivering his best form during that period.

“I’m not worried about my future”

These are the factors Real Madrid must weigh before deciding who will lead the team next season. Arbeloa was asked directly about his future following the Champions League exit and made clear he would accept whatever the club decides.

“I’m not worried at all, and I will fully understand any decision the club makes,” he said. “I’m a club man, and if I’m hurting, it’s not for myself, but for Real Madrid. Because we’re not going to win the Sixteenth this year. But my future doesn’t concern me in the slightest. Since I sat in this chair, it hasn’t been a worry. I feel I’ve done everything I could to help my players. I’m a club man and will accept any decision. All I want is for Real Madrid to keep winning.”

If he does not remain in charge of the first team, the next decision will be his own: return to Castilla, stay in another role within the club, or step away to pursue a career elsewhere.

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