The curious case of the Premier League team that could qualify for the Champions League or be relegated this season

Thirteenth place in the English Premier League in May usually means nothing much is left to play for. Safe, drifting, already thinking about next season. You’ll likely have heard the phrase ‘already on the beach’. One difference this year is, of course, for international players pondering their place in a World Cup roster.

But there’s a team right now, right there, with plenty on the line… in both directions.

With three games remaining, they are on 45 points and still have a mathematical path to both the Champions League places and, just barely, the relegation zone. It is a scenario built entirely on extremes, but the numbers have not closed either door, which makes it rather curious.

That team is Newcastle United.

What Newcastle needs to reach Champions League

The optimistic route is simple enough on paper (although I needed to double check all the variables of teams above them playing against each other - they can’t both lose after all) but wildly complicated in reality.

Newcastle would need to win all three remaining games, pushing them to 54 points. Given that’s against teams currently in 11th, 16th and 18th position, it’s a very possible scenario. Whether or not sixth-placed Bournemouth (seven points ahead), as well as Brentford, Brighton, Everton, Chelsea, Fulham and Sunderland all collapse at the same time is certainly another thing.

How can Newcastle be relegated?

The opposite outcome is just as extreme.

A nine-point cushion to West Ham in 18th (the only team that matters here) and a +17 goal difference should be more than enough, and in reality, it almost certainly is. But mathematically, it is not done.

Newcastle would have to lose all three games, heavily, including a big goal swing in the game between the two sides. A long shot, right?

OK, so you’re a Sunderland fan and still dreaming that this could happen. Well, you’d then need to have the teams between the two – namely Leeds, Crystal Palace, Forest, and Spurs – to pick up enough points to overtake the Magpies. And note the very specific requirement for Leeds to lose to both Spurs and West Ham but to pick up three points against Brighton.

Newcastle prediction

The most likely outcome remains a quiet mid-table finish and by the time we reach Sunday afternoon, if not earlier, this article will be redundant. But, as for now, Newcastle occupy a rare space in the table, where both ends of the season’s spectrum remain, technically, within reach.

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