The World Cup twist that could change everything in the Ballon d’Or race

PSG’s Champions League triumph under Luis Enrique has once again put the French club at the center of the Ballon d’Or conversation. If the 2025 Champions League elevated Ousmane Dembélé all the way to the award presented by France Football and UEFA, the club’s 2026 European title has once again placed several PSG stars among the leading contenders for soccer’s top individual honor.

Who are favorites for Ballon d’Or men’s prize 2026?

Dembélé himself, Achraf Hakimi and the team’s leading scorer in this edition of the competition, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, all have strong cases. Yet much of the attention is focused on Vitinha. The Portuguese midfielder was instrumental in last season’s title-winning campaign and has maintained the same level this year. Named MVP of the final against Arsenal, he is widely regarded by UEFA analysts and experts as the driving force behind PSG’s play. There is broad agreement that Vitinha is a serious Ballon d’Or contender – depending on what happens at the World Cup.

It is no secret that in a World Cup year, performances on the international stage have a direct impact on the Ballon d’Or vote. History offers several examples. Argentina’s victory at Qatar 2022 helped Lionel Messi secure the 2023 award as the leading figure of that triumph. The same happened with Fabio Cannavaro after Italy’s 2006 World Cup win and with Luka Modrić following his outstanding 2018 tournament. Those are some of the clearest recent examples, although the pattern is not always followed, as Xavi and Andrés Iniesta discovered in 2010, among other cases.

The World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada still offers several players a chance to strengthen their candidacy before the Ballon d’Or ceremony, which will be held outside Paris for the first time on Oct. 26 in London. At the top of that list is Harry Kane. The season’s Golden Boot winner has enjoyed a remarkable year with Bayern Munich. His scoring output and overall play continue to improve, and he has won everything possible with the German club apart from the Champions League, where Bayern fell to PSG in a dramatic semifinal. A strong World Cup run with England could place him above the rest. Kane was the leading scorer at the 2018 World Cup, and repeating that feat – something no player has ever done – would further strengthen his case.

In Spain, many believe this could be Lamine Yamal’s World Cup. Runner-up in last year’s Ballon d’Or voting, the Barcelona star remains highly regarded by the journalists who cast ballots. He enjoyed an excellent season with Barça, though without a defining Champions League run. An outstanding World Cup would dramatically improve his chances.

Kylian Mbappé finds himself in a similar position. The Real Madrid forward finished as the top scorer in both La Liga and the Champions League. Long considered a future Ballon d’Or winner, the Frenchman could become more than just a contender if France wins the World Cup and he plays a leading role. A French triumph would also boost the prospects of players such as Dembélé and Michael Olise. The Bayern winger has taken a major step forward and produced a season to remember. Few players possess his ability to unsettle defenses, and a strong World Cup could put him firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation.

Another player who can never be ruled out is Vinícius Júnior. The Real Madrid star has an opportunity to lead Brazil back to the top of world soccer, and if he plays a decisive role in that objective, his name will once again feature prominently among the leading candidates. He came close in 2024 and could do so again.

Like Vitinha, although with the complication of sharing the same national team, Bruno Fernandes also enters the discussion. The Manchester United midfielder was named Premier League MVP after a superb season in which he broke the league’s assist record and added to an already impressive collection of individual honors. A successful World Cup campaign for Portugal would strengthen his position considerably.

Joshua Kimmich is another name gaining attention. The Bayern Munich midfielder has been one of the standout performers under Vincent Kompany, and Germany remains one of the traditional favorites to win the World Cup. Although he often moves to right back for the national team, his influence on the field remains just as significant. He is the engine of both Bayern and Germany.

Then there is Erling Haaland. A striker of his caliber and scoring ability can never be discounted. The Premier League’s leading scorer will finally appear at a World Cup with Norway. If he enjoys a strong tournament and Norway exceeds expectations, he could surge into the upper tier of contenders. Manchester City’s disappointing European campaign makes his path more difficult, but nothing can be ruled out when it comes to the prolific Norwegian.

Other names naturally remain in contention. Achraf Hakimi, fresh off PSG’s Champions League success, would need Morocco to once again become one of the tournament’s surprise stories. Declan Rice, a Champions League runner-up with Arsenal and a regular MVP performer, is one of Thomas Tuchel’s key figures for England. William Saliba and David Raya also deserve mention after outstanding seasons with Arsenal, including the club’s historic Premier League title, and could further elevate their status with strong World Cup performances. Raya’s task is more difficult, however, as he is not currently Spain manager Luis de la Fuente’s first-choice goalkeeper.

Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez, Raphinha, Rayan Cherki, Bukayo Saka and Pedri also remain in the conversation.

These players, and perhaps a few others, will form the core of the Ballon d’Or debate. Yet soccer has a way of producing surprises, and no one can completely dismiss the possibility of one final great statement from Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. The answer will come after the World Cup, when the award is presented in London on Oct. 26.

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