World Cup 2026

Why is Mexico a top seed in the 2026 World Cup draw? The toughest opponents El Tri will avoid in the group stage

The Nations League and Gold Cup triumphs were the only high points for Mexico in 2025. Otherwise, Javier Aguirre’s team disappointed in 2025.

Jorge Martinez

Carlos Zúñiga Andy Hall

Ciudad de México Update: Dec 4th, 2025 12:29 EST

With the final draw for the 2026 World Cup just hours away, Mexico—one of the tournament’s three hosts—will enjoy favorable seeding rules designed to shield them, at least initially, from facing the teams tipped to go on and lift the trophy.

Mexico, led by veteran coach Javier Aguirre, closed out 2025 on a worrying note: six straight matches without a win. That skid has fueled uncertainty heading into the world’s biggest sporting event. Still, avoiding the heavyweights in the group stage offers Mexico a much-needed boost to its chances of advancing at the tournament.

The teams which Mexico will avoid in the group stage round:

Spain
Argentina
France
England
Brazil
Portugal
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany

El XI inicial de esta noche ante Paraguay. 📸

De alta calidad, así como @easportsfclatam. 😮‍💨#SomosMéxico 🙌 pic.twitter.com/eLU7nQNKRo
— Selección Nacional (@miseleccionmx) November 19, 2025

Why is Mexico a top seed?

When FIFA confirmed that the 2026 World Cup would be hosted jointly by Mexico, the United States, and Canada, it also guaranteed that all three host nations would be seeded. This is standard FIFA procedure: hosts are placed in Pot 1 to maximize their chances of advancing deeper into the tournament.

Pot 1 is reserved for the strongest teams—those ranked highest in FIFA’s global standings. By being placed there, Mexico won’t have to face any of those elite squads in the group stage. The USMNT and Canada, also seeded, won’t be drawn against Mexico either.

Rival de alto nivel 🔝

¡Incondicionales! Nos mediremos ante Bélgica en Chicago como parte de la preparación para la Copa del Mundo🔥.https://t.co/t7rYvudrFC 📰✍️#SomosMéxico💚🤍❤️ pic.twitter.com/BVvuCHZ3S9
— Selección Nacional (@miseleccionmx) December 2, 2025

Mexico's results in 2025

20 March Canada 0-2 Mexico (CONCACAF Nations League)

23 March Mexico 2-1 Panama (CONCACAF Nations League)

7 June Mexico 2-4 Switzerland (Friendly)

10 June Mexico 1-0 Turkey (Friendly)

14 June Mexico 1-0 Dominican Republic (Gold Cup)

18 June Suriname 0-2 Mexico (Gold Cup)

22 June Mexico 0-0 Costa Rica (Gold Cup)

28 June Mexico 2-0 Saudi Arabia (Gold Cup)

2 July Mexico 1-0 Honduras (Gold Cup)

6 July USMNT 1-2 Mexico (Gold Cup)

6 September Mexico 0-0 Japan (Friendly)

9 September Mexico 2-2 South Korea (Friendly)

11 October Mexico 0-4 Colombia (Friendly)

14 October Mexico 1-1 Ecuador (Friendly)

15 November Mexico 0-0 Uruguay (Friendly)

18 November Mexico 1-2 Paraguay (Friendly)

The bottom line

Mexico’s seeding status is a strategic advantage. While their recent form raises concerns, starting the World Cup without immediately facing the likes of Brazil, France, or Argentina gives Aguirre’s squad a fighting chance to build momentum at next summer’s event.

When is the 2026 World Cup draw?

The 2026 World Cup group stage draw will take place at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington D.C., United States on Friday December, 5 2025 at 12 p.m. noon ET / 9 a.m. PT.