1st, 2nd or 3rd: United States’ likely World Cup 2026 opponents in the round of 32

The wait is over. On Friday, the United States Men’s National Team will open its World Cup 2026 campaign against Paraguay at Los Angeles Stadium, looking to take the first step toward advancing from the group stage at this summer’s tournament.

Mauricio Pochettino’s side faces a Paraguay team led by Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón in what will be the most important game so far for the Stars and Stripes at a World Cup that officially gets underway Thursday in Mexico City.

The Americans’ second group-stage game will come against Australia at Seattle Stadium before they return to Los Angeles to close out Group D against Türkiye.

What happens if the United States wins its group?

If the United States finishes first in its group, the Americans would play in Kansas City against the best third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. Based on my predictions, that’s likely to be one of Bosnia, Ecuador, Sweden, Norway or Algeria.

That scenario could provide a favorable path into the knockout rounds while allowing the USMNT to remain on home soil.

What happens if the United States finishes second?

Should the United States end the group stage in second place, it would face the runner-up from Group G, which includes Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. I’m pretty confident that will be Mohamed Salah and co.

That matchup would take place at Dallas Stadium in Texas and could set up an intriguing clash against one of the tournament’s most balanced groups.

The third-place scenarios for the USMNT

A third-place finish would create a far more difficult route. The United States could be drawn against the winner of Group E (so most likely Germany, assuming no shocks against Curaçao, Ivory Coast and Ecuador); the winner of Group I (France the dominant force against Senegal, Iraq, and Norway); or the winner of Group K (with either Portugal or Colombia topping the group that also includes DR Congo and Uzbekistan).

If the Americans are paired with the Group K winner and advance, they would leave the United States and head to Vancouver for the next round.

Otherwise, the Stars and Stripes would remain in the United States throughout their World Cup journey.

There are so many variables and it’s going to be fun...

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