For the first time in World Cup history, the top four teams in the FIFA World Ranking will contest the semifinals. World No. 1 France take on third-ranked Spain in Dallas on Tuesday, July 14, with fourth-ranked England facing No. 2 Argentina 24 hours later in Atlanta.

With four of international soccer’s heavyweights set to fight it out for World Cup glory, settling on a favorite for either semifinal, never mind the tournament outright, is no easy task. But what do the quartet’s respective paths to the semifinals tell us about how strong they are?

Which team has had the toughest path?

Based on the average FIFA World Ranking of their opponents throughout the tournament, which is not an exact barometer but is probably a more accurate gauge than simply “vibes,” France have had the toughest route to the semifinals, although only just ahead of Spain.

Les Bleus’ six opponents since the start of the group stage have had an average world ranking of 29.5, with Morocco (No. 6) the highest-ranked and Iraq (No. 63) the lowest.

Spain’s knockout route stands out

Spain’s path to the last four is arguably the most intriguing. Luis de la Fuente’s team had the least challenging group stage, facing opponents with an average world ranking of 47.3. However, their knockout run has been by far the toughest, including games against Portugal (No. 7) and Belgium (No. 8).

There has been a feeling relatively early in the tournament that France and Spain’s side of the bracket was tougher than England and Argentina’s, and that is especially true for Lionel Messi and Co.

Argentina have had the “easiest” opponents overall, with an average ranking of 37.8. England are next on 32.0, only slightly behind Spain’s 30.0.

Looking only at the knockout stage, La Albiceleste have faced opponents with an average FIFA World Ranking of 34.0, comfortably the highest of the four semifinalists. France are next on 25.7, followed by England on 23.3. Spain’s knockout opponents have averaged just 12.7, making theirs the toughest knockout path on paper.

Spain are the only team to have played two top-10 nations so far, while Argentina have yet to face one.

The tables below show each semifinalist’s opponents and the average FIFA World Ranking they have faced in both the group stage and knockout rounds.

Average FIFA World Ranking of each semifinalist’s opponents

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