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NFL Picks for Week 5: Buffalo Bills will beat Kansas City Chiefs

Just as fast as the return of Tom Brady to Foxborough, so comes the rematch of the AFC Championship Game, with the duel between the two best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 03: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after throwing for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 03, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylva
Mitchell LeffAFP

Picks: Josh Allen and the Bills will beat Chiefs at Arrowhead

Home Picks: Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs will lose at home to Bills

Visiting teams have a 33-31 record and it is not new: since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, the visit is uncomfortable in the NFL with a record of 284-290-2.

Week full of surprises in the NFL

Tell me about it. Six underdogs won and five did so in someone else's backyard, including the impressive triumph of the Arizona Cardinals, new owner of the throne in any respected Power Ranking.

The visiting teams have a record of 33-31 and that, I insist, is not new: since the beginning of the 2019 season, the visiting teams have a record of 284-290-2.

It's a cliché, but in this league you are one or two plays away from winning or losing on any given Sunday. The drama is also part of the narrative: So far 15 games have been decided by a touchdown or field goal in the last minute of regular time or overtime, the highest in four weeks since 1970.

In fact, 17 of 64 games (26.6 percent) have been decided by three points or less.

Ready for Week 5? Let’s go!


Buffalo at Kansas City (-2.5)

Just as fast as the return of Tom Brady to Foxborough, so comes the rematch of the AFC Championship Game, with the duel between the two best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

After an inexplicable loss at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, Josh Allen and the Bills have three victories, defeating their opponents by a combined score of 118-21, including shutouts against Miami (35-0) and Houston (40-0).

After falling to Baltimore and the Chargers, Patrick Mahomes (1,218 yards, 14 touchdowns, 4 interceptions in 2021) threw five touchdown passes in the Chiefs' win at Philadelphia.

These two teams are explosive, but only one has shown consistency on both sides of the ball. The Bills defense is the best in the league, accepting an average of 235 yards and 11 points per game. However, this Sunday night we will find out if this unit is legitimate or not.

Kansas City overwhelm Buffalo’s defense

Mahomes's offense is second with 434.8 yards and 33.5 points per game. In the AFC Championship, Kansas City overwhelmed Buffalo’s defense with 439 yards, including 325 from Mahomes, who found the end zone three times.

Jerry Hughes recorded the Bills defense's only sack and only two other players came close to the Chiefs quarterback that night at Arrowhead.

After four weeks, the Bills have 12 sacks, including two from veteran Star Lotulelei and two from rookie Gregory Rousseau. Putting pressure on Mahomes is essential in order to beat Kansas City. Mahomes has only been sacked five times in 2021, but has thrown four interceptions.

Allen could thrive

When the Bills have the ball, Josh Allen could thrive against a so-so defense that accepts an average of 453 yards and 31 points per game, second to last in the league in both categories.

Everyone knows what Allen (1,055 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 2021) and Stefon Diggs are capable of, but the Bills quarterback should have an eye on Tyrann Mathieu, the dynamic safety of Kansas City who already has a pair of interceptions in the season.

The pick

Steve Spagnuolo must find a way to make his defense work, because Buffalo won't be afraid to throw the ball 50 times at Arrowhead, if this game turns into an Allen-Mahomes shootout. Bills 34-30 Chiefs.


Miami at Tampa Bay (-10)

Coach Mike Flores also knows how to frustrate Tom Brady, but there is no way Miami will win in Tampa. Bucs 28-20 Dolphins.


Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Seattle

This promises to be one of the most entertaining duels of the week. Matthew Stafford has played very well, but Russell Wilson is in the MVP conversation. Seahawks 28-25 Rams.


New York Jets vs. Atlanta (-3) in London

Dear NFL: England is an important business partner who does not deserve the worst game of Week 4. Falcons 27-23 Jets.

Tennessee (-4) at Jacksonville

Coach Urban Meyer is a shame on and off the field. Titans 31-21 Jaguars.

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3.5)

After the blowout in Dallas, Carolina's defense will have a breather against Jalen Hurts. Panthers 28-17 Eagles.

Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati

Joe Burrow has better stats than Aaron Rodgers, but the Green Bay defense is slowly beginning to show the level of last season. Packers 27-24 Bengals.

New England (-8.5) at Houston

It wasn't easy for Bill Belichick to digest the loss to Tom Brady, but that painkiller called Texans will do the trick. New England 28-14 Houston.

Detroit at Minnesota (-8)

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense was handcuffed by Cleveland, but against Detroit things will return to normal. Vikings 27-20 Lions.

Denver at Pittsburgh (-1)

Without Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) these two teams are very similar: without a quarterback and in the hands of their defense. Broncos 19-16 Steelers.

New Orleans (-2.5) at Washington

Coach Ron Rivera's defense accepts 30.5 points per game. Saints 28-21 WFT.

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

We are going to see these two teams in the Playoffs and their duel on Sunday should be an entertaining defensive battle. Chargers 20-16 Browns.

Chicago at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Yes, Las Vegas' record is a trap, but Chicago averages a touchdown in road games. Raiders 27-7 Bears San Francisco at Arizona (-5.5)

Coach Kliff Kingsbury's team (1-3 vs. San Francisco) still doesn't get the media attention it deserves, but there's nothing wrong with flying under the radar. Cardinals 31-27 49ers.

New York Giants at Dallas (-7)

Kudos to Dan Quinn, who needed just weeks to change the face of one of the worst defenses of 2020. Cowboys 31-19 Giants.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

When you have an MNF like that, just think about the London game. Ravens 28-19 Colts.

Over / Under

Browns vs. Chargers UNDER 47

Bills vs. Chiefs OVER 56.5

Broncos vs. Steelers UNDER 39.5

Last week: 9-7

In season: 40-24


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