Could Storm Erin hit the US, and when? Here’s how the potential first hurricane of the season is developing

The US Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st. Since then, a total of five storms have been recorded, with Tropical Storm Erin being the most recent. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Erin formed this Monday, August 11th, west of the Cape Verde Islands.

At the time of its formation, Erin had sustained winds of 45 mph and was located 560 miles west of Cape Verde and 2,020 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles. According to initial projections, Erin is expected to reach sustained winds of over 111 mph, becoming the first hurricane of the season by Thursday, August 14th.

Could Erin reach the US?

For now, most spaghetti models suggest that it is unlikely for Storm Erin to make landfall in the United States. However, some meteorologists warn that it is still too early to tell, so potential land impacts—especially along the Atlantic coast of North Carolina—should not be ruled out.

While Erin’s path remains uncertain, meteorologists warn that it could become not only the first hurricane of the season but also the first major hurricane, with possible winds of up to 130 mph, entering Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. If so, it is expected to remain a major hurricane until Sunday around 2:00 PM, according to Accuweather projections. Afterwards, it could weaken to a Category 2 hurricane and maintain that strength until Monday afternoon.

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