Florida’s first tropical storm of 2025? New forecast pinpoints potential impact dates

The first day of June heralds the start of the Atlantic hurricane season - a six-months spell when tropical and subtropical storms form offshore, many of them develop into hurricanes which cause large-scale destruction and casualties.

Last year’s hurricane season was one of the most destructive in recent years. Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Atlantic basin Category-5 hurricane since official statistics began, forming on 28 June and making landfall three days later. Hurricane Helene reached Category 4 and caused over 250 fatalities, while Milton became the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, provoking $34.6 billion worth of damage in Florida, Georgia and the Bahamas.

In total, there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes in 2024. So what can we expect this year?

Predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

In their annual forecast, Colorado State University predict 17 named storms in 2025 - above the 30-year average (14.4), and nine hurricanes - four of them major, ie. Category 3 and above with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also believes we are in for a season with higher than usual activity. NOAA’s National Weather Service predict a “30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season”.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). - six to 10 of them potentially becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).

So when can we expect the first tropical storm? The National Hurricane Center report that no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days.

When could we see the first tropical storm of the 2025 season?

However, according to AccuWeather, the first tropical storm of the season could form between June 6 and June 13, potentially impacting the Florida Keys between June 10 and 13. AccuWeather predicts 3-6 direct land impacts in 2025 - and not only around the gulf coast but with a greater possibility of hurricane activity near the Carolina coastline.

While water temperatures are lower than last year, in the gulf, high temperatures of 8-9 degrees have been recorded, which meteorologists warn could see storms intensify much quicker as they approach land.

The 2025 hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30.

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