National Weather Service warns of a possible tropical storm brewing in the Atlantic: Could it impact the US?

The National Weather Service (NWS) is tracking a potential tropical cyclone currently located a couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, which could begin moving toward North America later this week and into next. The system is being referred to as a “tropical wave” by the NWS.

While Mexico and Central America have been hit hard by hurricanes and tropical storms this season—which began on June 1—most of the U.S. has been spared from severe weather.

The possible storm, monitored by the NWS’s National Hurricane Center (NHC), has not yet been named, as it hasn’t developed into a tropical cyclone.

However, on September 3, the NHC updated its report on the tropical wave, currently “located over the eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.” Meteorologists noted that “environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend.”

What direction is the tropical wave moving?

If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Gabrielle. Storm names are chosen before the season begins and assigned in alphabetical order as storms form.

“This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week,” forecasts the NWS.

Currently, there’s a 40% chance the system will become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Over the next seven days, that likelihood increases to 80%.

As for whether the system will impact the U.S., it’s still too early to say. If it continues to strengthen into a tropical cyclone, the NWS will release updated forecasts, including spaghetti models that attempt to predict the storm’s path.

The Weather Channel has released an early forecast that is quite conservative, because it is so early to judge the path of the storm. The models from the organization say that the storm could move past “parts of the Lesser Antilles next Wednesday or Thursday, Sept. 10-11.” If the storm follows this path, the Caribbean could see “enhanced swells and rainfall.”

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