The staggering sum bet online on Canada’s national election

Canadians will head to the polls on Monday, April 28, to determine whether or not the Liberal Party will continue to lead the country as it faces growing threats from the United States.

Elections are now a mainstay of betting on Polymarket, a gambling website that allows users to place bets on a wide range of topics, including politics, culture, technology, the economy, and sports.

The total now surpasses $100 million

As of Friday afternoon, the total volume of bets has surpassed $113 million. Although Polymarket rules state that users in the US cannot place bets, some VPNs may allow users to circumvent these restrictions.

Those who have put bets on the election favor the odds of the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was chosen as the former PM Justin Trudeau’s successor after he stepped aside earlier this year.

Before President Donald Trump took office, the Conservative Party had more favorable prospects. However, his administration quickly intensified tensions with Canada, labeling it as the 51st state and calling Prime Minister Trudeau “Governor Trudeau.”

Additionally, threats were made to violate trade agreements by imposing tariffs on Canadian goods. Consequently, the ‘Canada First’ campaign message began to lose its appeal among some voters disillusioned by a decade of Liberal leadership, particularly as they observed the direction of the ‘America First’ policy being pursued in Washington.

Where Polymarket users are placing their bets

If Polymarket gamblers are correct in their predictions, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre, will only win three territories: Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, with the Liberal Party, leading the popular vote in those that remain.

Even in Quebec, the Liberal Party is expected to attract the most votes, with Parti Québécois, the nationalist party which had dominated elections until around 2012, not expected to gain many more seats. The Trump administration’s tariffs have led to a rise in Canadian nationalism across the country, even in Quebec, where between December 2024 and February 2025, rates of “feeling Canadian” rose from 45 to 58 percent, as reported by The Guardian.

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