Will we have a hot summer in 2025: This is what the experts predict now that La Niña is gone
La Niña conditions have disappeared, and meteorologists are predicting that the coming months will be in a “neutral” pattern. Here’s what that will mean.
La Niña barely stayed around long enough to meet the conditions to qualify as the climate phenomenon. Just a few months after the average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean dipped below the threshold they rose again prompting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to declare the climate phenomenon over.
However, meteorologists aren’t predicting La Niña to return straight away or an El Niño to take its place. Instead, we can expect to have an “ENSO-neutral” seasonal pattern through the summer and into early winter. So what will that mean for the temperatures and weather this summer?
Above average temperatures forecast for summer 2025
Meteorologists at NOAA say that it is hard to predict what will happen during the ENSO-neutral period at this time as forecasts made in spring are less successful than during the rest of the year. This is known as the “spring predictability barrier,” something they can’t quite explain as they don’t have a clear understanding of why at this time.
However, the Climate Prediction Center has posted its official forecast for the summer months. All of the Lower 48 and Alaska is predicted to have above normal temperatures in July, August and September.
The areas with the highest probability at this time include a swath of the West from northern New Mexico and up the Rocky Mountain Range over to the West Coast. As well, the southernmost portion of all the Gulf States and Georgia, and the Northeast.
The East Coast, Southwest and Alaska are forecast to have above average precipitation through the summer. However, the prediction for a swath of the United States from the Cascades to Lake Huron with a dip down to Oklahoma is below normal.
What is the forecast for hurricane season?
An early forecast from Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project team is predicting an active season with 17 named storms. Nine of those forecast to become hurricanes and four will be Category 3 or higher. “However, there remains considerable uncertainty” as to what ENSO phase will be present when hurricane season reaches its peak.
La Niña and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive environment when combined with warmer-than-normal water conditions. Meanwhile, El Niño weather patterns usually help suppress hurricane formation.
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