How a historic trade could reshape the 2026 NBA Draft

It could have been worse for the rest of the NBA. Much worse. For months, teams watched nervously as a potential domino effect became one of the league’s biggest talking points early in the season.

The Clippers collapsed in November and didn’t regain their footing until well into December. They were 6–21 on December 19, less than a week before Christmas.

From there, they became competitive again, even while navigating major changes. Key pieces of their recent past, James Harden and Ivica Zubac, were moved out, while players meant to represent the future arrived, like Darius Garland (and possibly Bennedict Mathurin). All of this came while the franchise was under investigation for alleged under-the-table payments to Kawhi Leonard.

The result was their worst stretch in 15 years, dating back to before Blake Griffin’s NBA debut in 2010.

A season salvaged… barely

The Clippers hadn’t been this far below .500 since Blake Griffin’s rookie year in 2010, when they finished 32–50. But this time, they managed an unlikely recovery, becoming the first team to climb from such a deep hole to a winning record (42–40).

They at least preserved one streak: 15 straight seasons without finishing below .500. During that span, they made the playoffs 12 times, but reached the Western Conference Finals only once.

That number won’t change. Their loss to the Warriors in the Play-In ended a turbulent, inconsistent season and left them out of the playoffs. Now, the franchise faces an uncertain future.

Uncertain core, limited options

Within the organization, only head coach Tyronn Lue and point guard Darius Garland appear untouchable. Garland, a two-time All-Star, has shown flashes despite ongoing injury concerns, averaging nearly 19 points and over 6 assists in 19 games with the Clippers.

Beyond that, uncertainty reigns. Kawhi Leonard has one year left on his deal. Veterans like Brook Lopez and Nicolas Batum are nearing the end, while players like Bennedict Mathurin and John Collins remain question marks. Bradley Beal, once again injured, barely factors into the conversation, and Chris Paul’s brief return ended quickly.

The lottery everyone is watching

The Clippers at least cleared salary and gained flexibility. They started the season as the 10th most expensive roster in the league (over $215 million) and finished below $200 million.

But their biggest storyline now is tied to the draft. Their trade involving Ivica Zubac gave them indirect interest in the Indiana Pacers’ first-round pick, which comes with top-4 protection. Since the Pacers finished with one of the worst records in the league, they have a 52% chance of keeping that pick, and a 14% shot at landing No. 1 overall.

If the pick falls outside the top four, it goes to the Clippers, potentially at No. 5 or 6. That alone makes the Clippers a key factor in the May 10 lottery.

The Thunder factor

But there’s another layer, and it’s even more significant. The Clippers’ own first-round pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending champions and favorites to repeat. That’s why the entire league is watching closely.

The Thunder will enter the lottery through the Clippers’ No. 12 slot, with an 86% chance of staying there, but also a 7.1% chance of jumping into the top four. Even that slim possibility is enough to worry the rest of the NBA.

The Paul George trade that keeps hurting

At the heart of all this is the 2019 trade for Paul George, a deal that continues to haunt the Clippers.

In exchange, they sent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, multiple unprotected first-round picks, and several pick swaps to the Thunder. What already stands as one of the worst trades in NBA history could look even worse after the 2026 Draft.

That package has already yielded key players like Jalen Williams, along with additional assets. And now, it could produce yet another high-value pick in what is expected to be a loaded draft class featuring elite prospects like Darryn Peterson, A.J. Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer.

The idea of one of those talents landing in Oklahoma City is, for many around the league, terrifying. It evokes memories of 1982, when the Lakers won a championship and still held the No. 1 overall pick—using it to draft James Worthy.

A league-shaping draft

The Thunder could end up with multiple first-round picks again, including one from the Philadelphia 76ers. Meanwhile, the Clippers remain stuck without control of their own future picks, limiting both their ability to rebuild and to pursue star players.

And they’re not alone in facing consequences. The New Orleans Pelicans, after another disappointing season, may hand a high lottery pick to the Atlanta Hawks due to a risky, unprotected trade. What seemed like an aggressive move at the time could now backfire dramatically.

As one anonymous general manager told The Athletic: “This is the worst trade I’ve seen in at least a decade...aside from the Luka Doncic one.”

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