NFL Week 15 picks: Revenge in store for Josh Allen and the Bills?

It’s Week 15, and the most famous No. 15 in the National Football League - the one that for years symbolized inevitability - now carries a number that can’t be disguised: 15%. That’s the percentage chance Patrick Mahomes has left to avoid waking up this Monday the 15th virtually eliminated from the playoff race, leaving vacant a throne Kansas City guarded for three seasons as if the AFC were its birthright.

Sports have a strange way of signaling the end of a cycle. First, authority cracks. Then confidence breaks. Then come losses that once seemed impossible. Suddenly, the team that set the standard is stuck on the margins. Kansas City isn’t Kansas City anymore. The experts say it. The math says it. And No. 15 says it - this time not as a symbol of greatness, but as an hourglass running out of sand.

The Patriots, who seemed resigned to irrelevance, are now fighting for the AFC’s top seed. A narrative twist no one saw coming, especially in a conference that features Josh Allen, the league’s reigning MVP. New England has gone from gasping for air to commanding a division Allen has ruled for years. The Patriots once again carry that aura of arrogance that defined the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era - the most successful quarterback-coach duo of the Super Bowl age.

The league waits for no one. When one falls, another rises - and sometimes that rise happens quietly, almost unnoticed, as if no one wants to admit it. That’s the case with the Broncos, owners of a 10-game winning streak that demands attention even if instinct says the final test is still ahead. Four rugged weeks remain, a schedule full of turbulence, but Denver is close to locking up the AFC West - a division the Chiefs have owned since 2016.

Kansas City, New England, and Denver sketch the emotional map of Week 15. Three different realities tied together by the same truth: football is cyclical. No one reigns forever. No one sinks eternally. Everything renews. Everything returns. The end of one dynasty is often the beginning of another.

Mahomes and the Chiefs may be feeling the first serious tremor of an era that seemed eternal. The Patriots might be proving that “rebuild” was never a destination, just a bridge. And Denver, after years of wandering, is no longer a rumor but a force being built in real time.

Week 15 brings clarity. It also brings memory. In the NFL, numerology isn’t superstition . it’s a symptom. The 15 that once stamped dominance is now a countdown to the end of an empire.

Game of the Week: Bills (-1.5) at Patriots

The AFC East is swinging like a pendulum that, after years tilted toward Buffalo, now seems to rest in Foxborough. But Allen’s visit carries a December drama all its own. This matchup reopens the wound from Week 5 and gives the Bills a chance to disrupt the order New England has built with a 10-game winning streak that reshaped the season’s landscape.

The Patriots enter at 11-2, controlling a division they haven’t won since 2019. The turnaround is stunning: from the basement in 2024 to knocking on the door of a title. As we’ve said, the NFL deals in sharp cycles - 19 of the last 22 seasons have seen at least one team go from worst to first, and the Patriots are the latest example.

Mike Vrabel’s team adds another wrinkle. The head coach is 6-0 coming off bye weeks, with his squads averaging 30-14 in those returns. Among those wins? A 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo back in 2020.

The recent history between these rivals makes any easy read impossible. In Week 5, the Bills landed at Highmark Stadium unbeaten, poised to strengthen their path to a sixth straight division crown. Instead, New England walked out with a 23-20 win that not only ended Buffalo’s 4-0 start but ignited the surge that turned Drake Maye into an MVP candidate. Since then, the Patriots have ruled the East.

This rematch feels different because Buffalo arrives at 9-4 and under pressure. Even with five straight division titles, the margin has shrunk. The Bills are chasing a seventh consecutive season with at least 10 wins, aiming to join an elite club that includes the Patriots from 2003-2019 and the 49ers of the Joe Montana-Steve Young era. That continuity is in jeopardy as the wild-card race tightens, and a loss in Foxborough could push their playoff ticket into next week’s hands.

Allen will try to erase the sting of that first meeting against a team that never lets up and now shares the league’s best record with Denver. The Bills carry the urgency of snapping the Patriots’ streak and reopening the AFC East debate. If they can return the favor for what happened in Buffalo, the division race regains tension - and New England’s march to the crown will have to wait.

• Prediction: Bills 30, Patriots 27

Week 15’s quick picks

Falcons at Buccaneers (-4.5): Atlanta is just 2-5 on the road. Tampa Bay took the first meeting of the season and should repeat the script.

• Prediction: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 28

Browns at Bears (7-5): Chicago’s five-game win streak ended, but they’ll bounce back against a team already out of the playoff picture.

• Prediction: Browns 17, Bears 24

Ravens at Bengals (-2): Baltimore squandered a golden shot at the division crown with a loss to Pittsburgh. Cincinnati will exploit that wound and deepen the damage.

• Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 27

Cardinals at Texans (-9.5): Houston’s defense is so disruptive and forces so many turnovers that the Texans might not even need to lean on C.J. Stroud to win.

• Prediction: Cardinals 14, Texans 24

Jets at Jaguars (-11.5): The Jets haven’t seen the postseason in 15 years. Jacksonville has won four straight. Two realities collide under the Florida sun.

• Prediction: Jets 17, Jaguars 30

Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5): Kansas City fell to the Chargers in the season opener in Brazil. Mahomes will make that 15% playoff chance tick upward with a home win.

• Prediction: Chargers 20, Chiefs 24

Commanders at Giants (-2): For the first time in a long while, the Giants are favored. Neither team has playoff hopes. A game to forget.

• Prediction: Commanders 14, Giants 20

Raiders at Eagles (-12.5): Las Vegas hasn’t won since October, and the skid has even splashed onto Tom Brady. Another week without a victory.

• Prediction: Raiders 13, Eagles 24

Packers at Broncos (-2): A matchup with Super Bowl vibes for some analysts. Denver’s defense is elite, but they’ll need more offensive punch to pull this off.

• Prediction: Packers 24, Broncos 20

Lions at Rams (-5.5): The Rams are the NFC’s dominant force. Matthew Stafford gets his revenge against his former team in a shootout.

• Prediction: Lions 33, Rams 38

Panthers (-3) at Saints: New Orleans is already looking ahead to 2026, while Carolina is locked in on Sunday. Two mindsets, two different worlds.

• Prediction: Panthers 24, Saints 17

Titans at 49ers (-12.5): Tennessee is coming off an offensive showcase, but San Francisco has championship DNA.

• Prediction: Titans 20, 49ers 27

Colts at Seahawks (-11.5): Philip Rivers returning to the NFL would make a great movie script, but on the field Indy doesn’t have the tools to compete in Seattle.

• Prediction: Colts 17, Seahawks 30

Vikings at Cowboys (-6.5): Dallas’ aerial attack will keep its playoff hopes alive.

• Prediction: Vikings 14, Cowboys 20

Dolphins at Steelers (-3.5): Pittsburgh controls its own destiny - but will complicate it with a surprise loss under the Monday Night Football lights.

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Steelers 17

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