Two routes Mexico could take after the 2026 World Cup group stage - one much tougher than the other
Ironically, finishing first in the group is not a scenario that would suit Javier Aguirre’s team at the next World Cup. Let’s look at the possible scenarios.
The final FIFA break is behind us, and the next time club soccer pauses will be for the 2026 World Cup in North America. For Javier Aguirre and Mexico, that’s actually the best‑case scenario.
Contrary to what many fans assume, finishing first in Group A might not be ideal for Mexico. El Tri shares the group with South Africa, South Korea, and the Czech Republic—and topping the table could lead to a tougher path than expected.
Why finishing first could backfire
If Mexico wins Group A, its Round of 32 opponent would be the best third‑place team from Group E, which could be Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
If neither of those teams ends up as the top third‑place finisher, then Mexico’s opponent would come from Group I—home to France, Senegal, Norway, and Iraq.
There’s also a remote scenario in which Mexico finishes third in Group A. In that case, El Tri would head to Foxborough to face the winner of Group D, which includes Belgium, New Zealand, Iran, and Egypt.
Why second place might be Mexico’s “sweet spot”
Ironically, finishing second could give Mexico the “easier” route—at least in the Round of 32. The runner‑up in Group A faces the second‑best team from Group B.
Group B
- Canada
- Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Switzerland
- Qatar
Any of these would be Mexico’s opponent in the next round.
Of course, the bracket gets tougher quickly. If Mexico advances as a group winner, it would likely meet England in the Round of 16. If Mexico advances as a runner‑up, potential Round‑of‑16 opponents include the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Morocco, or Scotland.
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