What does Manchester United need to qualify for the Champions League round of 16?

Not much has been going right for Erik ten Hag’s United this season. In the Premier League, the team suffered its seventh defeat of the campaign at the weekend. Fans started making their way out of Old Trafford way before full-time in Saturday’s game against Bournemouth - an unusual sight, as was the result - a 0-3 home defeat to one of the teams in the bottom part of the table, and the Cherries’ first ever win at Old Trafford.

Grim as it is, the situation could even take a turn for the worse tonight in a different competition - the Champions League, as the group stage reaches its conclusion. United head into this evening’s final group with their chances of staying in Europe dangling by a thread and needing a combination of results to remain alive.

The outlook doesn’t look great. As things stand, United are rooted to the bottom of Group A with four points. In five games, Ten Hag’s team has won one, drawn one and lost three. The only way they can progress to the next round is with a win - that won’t be simple. They will be up against a Bayern side that last lost a Champions League group game six years ago - the Germans have gone 39 games without defeat at this stage of the competition.

Perhaps only two things are in United’s favor - Bayern have already qualified for the Last 16 as winners of the group and might take their foot of the gas (feasible), field a second string side (unlikely), or both; and secondly, United are at home although that is an advantage that hasn’t counted for much this season - as Galatasaray, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth have shown.

How can Manchester United qualify for the Round of 16?

There is only one way that United can sneak into the knockout round - they must beat Bayern and hope that the other Group A game between Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends in a draw. Two scenarios that need to align, and to be realistic, neither of them look particularly likely. Of course there is a possibility that United will beat Bayern, but what are the chances of the Copenhagen-Galatasaray game ending level? Both of them will be going flat out to win, nab the last qualifying berth and a place in the next round. And that’s the problem - for Ten Hag’s team, even with a win, the route to the Last 16 depends on what happens at Parken Stadion.

The permutations

Let’s look at all of the possible outcomes to see where United will finish the group stage - in the Last 16, in the Europa League or out of Europe altogether.