The two trends that show why Arbeloa isn’t the answer as Real Madrid’s title challenge collapses

LaLiga had started to feel like a long shot. Clawing back a nine-point deficit from the top of the table had proven impossible for any team, and Real Madrid needed something extraordinary.

Instead, a last-gasp slip to draw against Real Betis all but extinguished those hopes.

Now the situation has flipped completely. If Barcelona wins at Getafe, it could have a chance to clinch the title as early as next week. Not just in El Clásico, but in a scenario where Madrid would be forced to honor its rival with the traditional pregame guard of honor, something Barcelona last received from Madrid in 2008.

For a team that was leading the league just two months ago, the fall has been dramatic. Madrid now looks fragile, exposed, and out of answers.

A collapse backed by numbers

Two trends highlight just how steep the decline has been.

Since the last international break, Madrid has won just one of its last six games. That lone victory came against Alavés, a team that started the round in the relegation zone, in a narrow 2-1 win. The closest comparison to this kind of form came in October 2018, when Julen Lopetegui lost his job after Madrid managed just one win in seven matches. A 5-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou sealed his fate.

The second trend is even more alarming. Madrid has conceded in nine straight games. The last clean sheet came in a 3-0 win over Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 matchup at the Bernabéu. To find a similar defensive run, you have to go back to fall 2016, when Zinedine Zidane’s team went 10 consecutive matches without a shutout.

Defensive issues turning costly

The problem is even more pronounced in LaLiga play.

Madrid has now conceded in 10 straight league matches. Its last clean sheet in domestic competition came Feb. 8, a 2-0 win over Valencia at Mestalla. The historical comparison is ominous. In 2004, Carlos Queiroz’s Madrid conceded in 20 consecutive league games, spanning the entire second half of the season and the final game of the first.

Statistically, Madrid still ranks as the second-best defensive team in the league. But the timing of those goals allowed has been devastating, costing the team crucial points down the stretch.

Under Álvaro Arbeloa, Madrid managed clean sheets in three of the first four matches of the second half of the season. Since then, it has not recorded a single one. For comparison, the team kept eight clean sheets in the first half of the campaign.

Late-game failures define the slide

Even more damaging is when those goals are coming.

Madrid, long known for thriving in clutch moments, has been undone in stoppage time. Betis scored in the 94th minute. Alavés found the net in the 93rd. Vedat Muriqi’s winner for Mallorca came in the 91st. Osasuna’s Raúl García de Haro struck in the 90th to knock Madrid off the top of the table.

That is five points dropped in the dying moments of games.

The ‘Arbeloa effect’ fades

When Arbeloa took over, Madrid trailed Barcelona by four points. The team had already squandered a five-point lead it once held after beating Barça 2-1 in El Clásico at the Bernabéu.

Within a month, he had erased the deficit and restored Madrid to first place after a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad. Since then, however, the team has dropped 13 points across nine games, with three losses and two draws.

Barcelona, by contrast, has been flawless, winning eight straight league matches heading into its trip to Getafe.

Madrid under Arbeloa has now dropped more points than it did earlier in the season under Xabi Alonso. During Alonso’s tenure, the team lost 12 points through two defeats and three draws.

From promise to decline

After a humiliating cup exit against Albacete, Madrid briefly rebounded. Arbeloa came out of a 3-2 derby win over Atlético Madrid at the Bernabéu with an impressive 76.5% win rate, 13 victories in 17 matches.

That number has steadily declined. Madrid now has 14 wins in 23 games under Arbeloa, a 60.9% win rate. Alonso left the team at 70.6%.

Even more concerning is the rate of defeats. Arbeloa has lost 30.4% of his matches, seven out of 23, the eighth-highest loss percentage among the 45 coaches in club history to manage at least 20 games.

For a club that measures success in trophies, not trends, the direction is unmistakable.

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