The USMNT have qualified for the Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup with a game to spare after a 2-0 victory over Australia, following their opening 4-1 thrashing of Paraguay.

Both goals came in the first half, with an own goal by the Socceroos’ Cameron Burgess followed by a header from Alex Freeman just before half time.

The result moves the Stars and Stripes onto six points and means they are certain to finish ahead of Australia and Paraguay, both of whom could still reach the same tally.

Because the first tiebreaker is now the “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned,” per FIFA, rather than goal difference, Mauricio Pochettino’s team is guaranteed to finish ahead of both the Socceroos, who could still reach six points by winning their final game, and Paraguay, whom the Americans have already defeated.

How can the USMNT win Group D?

The USMNT will secure first place in Group D with one game left to play if Turkey fail to defeat Paraguay later on Friday (11 p.m. ET kickoff).

If that happens, the Americans will face the third-place team from one of five different groups in the Round of 32 in San Francisco on July 1.

Their potential opponents would come from:

• Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar
• Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curaçao
• Group F: Sweden, Japan, Netherlands, Tunisia
• Group I: Norway, France, Senegal, Iraq
• Group J: Argentina, Austria, Jordan, Algeria

At the time of writing, Bosnia and Herzegovina (two games played), Ecuador, the Netherlands, Senegal and Jordan (all one game) occupy third place in those groups, although there is still plenty of time for that to change.

How could the USMNT finish second?

The only way the United States can finish second is if Turkey defeat Paraguay on Friday and then also beat the co-hosts in Los Angeles on June 25. If those are the only two teams to finish on six points, the Turks would hold the tiebreaker and top the group.

In that case, the USMNT would next face the runner-up from Group G, which contains New Zealand, Iran, Belgium and Egypt, in Dallas on July 3. All four teams are tied on one point after their opening fixtures.

Is there any way the USMNT could still finish third?

Despite winning their opening two games, there is one, highly improbable, way the Stars and Stripes could still end up in third place. That would require the United States, Turkey and Australia all to finish on six points, which remains possible.

If that were to happen, all three teams would have taken three points from games against one another, meaning the second tiebreaker, goal difference, would come into play. Pochettino’s team comfortably has the best goal difference as things stand, so it would take a heavy defeat in the final group game, or a big Australia win over Paraguay, for the Americans to be overtaken.

However, in the unlikely event that happens, the USMNT would face the winner of one of the following groups in the Round of 32:

• Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curaçao (Boston, June 29)
• Group I: Norway, France, Senegal, Iraq (New York, June 30)
• Group K: Colombia, DR Congo, Portugal, Uzbekistan (Kansas City, July 3)

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