The 2026 World Cup’s new 48-team format brings a new (kind of) element to the final round of the group stage, with a number of teams having to wait several days after playing their final group game to discover whether they’ve qualified for the round of 32.

Predict the future with our World Cup 2026 calculator!

Because 48 doesn’t fit neatly into 32, three teams will progress to the knockout stage from eight of the World Cup’s 12 groups.

Something similar occurred at the 1990 and 1994 World Cups, when 24 countries attempted to qualify for the round of 16, the first knockout round in those tournaments.

How third-place qualification works at the World Cup

Back in 2026, the top two teams from each of the 12 groups go through, as has traditionally been the case. The nation that finishes bottom goes home.

For third-place finishers, well, it depends.

Throughout the group stage, the teams in third spot in each group are ranked in a league table, which only really matters once the very last group game has been played.

The countries in question are ranked first by points, with goal difference the next tiebreaker, followed by goals scored, fair play score and FIFA ranking.

Before the start of the tournament, the general consensus was that collecting four points from three games would almost certainly be enough for a third-place team to qualify for the round of 32, with those finishing on three points also having a fighting chance, depending on their goal difference.

In fact, Opta predicted that a team finishing on three points with a goal difference of -1 would have an 84% chance of reaching the round of 32. That drops to 63% for -2, 42% for -3, 27% for -4, and 19% for -5.

Current World Cup third-place standings

By the end of play on Wednesday, three of the 12 groups had concluded, with nine third-placed teams still to be determined.

Bosnia and Herzegovina already know they will be one of the best eight third-placed teams, but nothing else has been decided. South Korea and Scotland are the two other countries that have finished their campaigns and now face a nervous wait to see if they’ll be staying on or going home.

Teams that have played only two games clearly have an opportunity to pick up more points and move up the standings, but a defeat in Matchday 3 could also see them slide down the table as their goal difference worsens.

Scotland, for instance, went into their final game with the second-best record among third-placed teams, but their 3-0 loss to Brazil has caused them to plummet to seventh before Thursday’s games.

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