LaLiga predictions week 18

Levante vs Girona – home win

Both of these sides finished 2018 inside LaLiga’s top 10 with Girona sitting in ninth and Levante one place behind them even though they both finished with 22 points after 17 games. They might be dreaming of Europe but will have one eye on the relegation places because a run of form in either direction could send them up or down the table such is the precarious nature of mid-table in this season’s league. Girona are looking to avoid their third defeat away from home on the trot having lost to Athletic Club and Sevilla without scoring a single goal. Levante are coming off a 0-5 thumping from Barcelona at home which was preceded by an impressive win against Athletic Club. Before that, however, they lost to Real Sociedad, who have since lost their manager such was their poor form over recent weeks. Basically, neither of these teams can be trusted but Girona cannot create chances away from home and Levante have more room for improvement and should after the Christmas break.

Espanyol vs Leganés - draw

Leganés probably don’t deserve to be so close to the relegation places after Mauricio Pellegrino found his feet and started to turn them into a more competitive side (with a win over Barcelona in the first half of the season too). Espanyol create a lot at home but they also give up plenty of chances and have lost their last last six games in a row. Rubi is fighting for his job despite an excellent start to life in Catalonia and there are two ways to go about staving off speculation; he can go out swinging or he can play it safe and try to pick up points slowly but surely, ensuring his side don’t lose confidence in him. Trying to punch out Leganés is never a good idea given their speed on the counter and ability to withstand pressure and I’d expect a cagey affair on Friday night even in Rubi’s message is that they “want to start 2019 with a victory”. Sticking with the draw.

Real Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano – draw

Another game between relegation battlers. Saturday afternoon’s home side went on a winning run from the end of September until the end October, which spanned four games, and that explains their 13th position in the league. Aside from that spell, they have won just once in the league in 13 other attempts. Rayo have made themselves harder to beat and even won two home games in recent weeks but they are still lacking a stroke of luck and any defensive capability. They’re not facing Cruyff’s Dream Team on Saturday though and that’s a good thing for their battle against the drop. Regarding xG, Real Valladolid are the worst team at home in the league with just 7.99 expected goals. They are 10th in expected goals against though. Rayo don’t shoot the lights out away from home either and are middle of the road when it comes to giving up chances. Having said that, Real Valladolid have conceded seven in their last two games at home and with a confidence boosting performance against Real Madrid followed by a hope-inducing win over Levante before the break, Rayo might be inclined to travel north looking for a fight. A shootout that could go either way so I have to stick with a draw.

Alavés vs Valencia - draw

New Year, New Valencia? They'll be hoping so. But Alavés are not to be trifled with at home and remain unbeaten in their last nine in front of their supporters. The last two were draws and Valencia love nothing more than a good draw. Away from home, however, their form has been a little less milquetoast and a little more eratic with a win, a loss and a draw most recently against Eibar. As far as expected goals go, Alavés are second worse to sorry Valladolid but they are stingy when it comes to giving up chances and sit 8th in expected goals against. Valencia create plenty away from home and just Real Madrid, Sevilla and Barcelona create more than them on the road. They also give away very little up the other end and I'd expect Alavés to know their place in this one against an improving and dangerous Valencia side.

Full screen

Huesca vs Real Betis - away win

Junior Firpo, Real Betis' electric wing-back, who has been linked with a move to Real Madrid, might not play against Huesca due to a muscle injury. Regardless of the loss of voltage that comes with that injury, this is a game against an unlucky Huesca side with little to lose against a Real Betis side who often look like they are playing football for the fun of it. Francisco, Huesca's manager, is looking to get rid of Ruben Semedo and they look like they might be a team in freefall, which makes them either dangerous or docile. They are eight points from safety after acruing eight points from 17 games in their first season in the top flight and it's hard to see anything other than a Betis win. The home side are the fourth best in expected goals against in the league and Betis are not exactly a juggernaut away from home so things could be interesting in that sense. They should have enough, however, with the irrepressible Quique Setien on the bench and with the verdiblancos sniffing around the Champions League places.

Eibar vs Villarreal - home win

Santi arrived a little late in Valencia on Thursday but he came bearing gifts in the form of two goals to snatch an unlikely point for struggling Villarreal against Real Madrid. Eibar, at home, on Sunday might be a little to much to ask for the little genius though with just 36 hours between the games. Eibar are second to only Barcelona in expected goals at home but they give up their fair share too. Villarreal are third worst in LaLiga when it comes to conceding chances when they travel and aren't any great shakes in front of goal either. The draw pushed Villarreal out of the relegation zone but they are down there for a reason and their away for is pitiful. They have now gone five games without a win away from home and have not conceded less than two in all five of those games. Eibar are fond of a draw at home too though, which could be problematic for my prediction of a home win but after the energy exerted on Thursday, I'd expect a more apathetic version of the yellow submarine on Sunday afternoon.

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid - home win

The match-up of the weekend and one that will end up helping Barcelona regardless of how it finished. At least one of the top three will drop points this weekend. We are sure of that. But who? Sevilla have won their last six games at home in the league and their only defeat in the competition at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan came in a 0-2 blip against Getafe. Atlético are pretty ineffectual away from home and drew four prior to beating Real Valladolid in the middle of December. Pablo Machín has turned Sevilla into a team impossible to stop at home and just as difficult to break down. They rank fifth in expected goals against and third in expected goals and are as well rounded as they come, which explains their gravity defying rise to the top of the table recently. Atlético Madrid away from home are second in expected goals against, which Diego Simeone is likely to play on, and are the middle of the road when it comes to attacking on the road. Those last two is where it will be won or lost. Atlético will sit back and try to hold off Sevilla with Simeone playing to his only strength in this one while Machín will look to exploit their inability to attack by going gung-ho himself. The absence of Filipe Luis and Lucas Hernandez at training on Friday means the rijoblancos' defense is not as strong as it could be and that is where the game could and should be won.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad - home win

Real Madrid are coming off another lifeless second half performance against struggling Villarreall which saw them concede late on for the draw. They are playing a Real Sociedad who will be praying to the Basque god of mercy that the 'new manager bounce' is real after they sacked Asier Garitano midway through the campaign and just a day after Christmas day. Their utter mediocrity in attack is what hurt them although they did improve defensively when they switched their now former coach for Eusebio in the summer. Real Madrid are only 8th best in expeted goals at home this year but they are stifling in defence. That might, however, comes from visiting teams fear of attacking rather than their actually ability to defend as questions continue to be asked over Sergio Ramos and Marcelo's form for los Blancos. Gareth Bale is likely out and so is Marco Asensio with a potential chance for Vinicius from the start. Isco was good after being introduced by Solari in the second half and the forced changes could be a welcome change for the home side on Sunday as they continue to stutter through their year.

Getafe vs Barcelona - away win

Barcelona are coming off two impressive wins away from home - a 0-4 beating of Espanyol and a 0-5 hiding of tricky Levante. Neither of those sides can hold a match to Getafe at home though. Jose Bordalas has them performing well above expectation in front of goal and are sixth in expected goals against with 8.34. They have only actually conceded four though so expect that to start turning away from them and with Barcelona coming to the suburbs of Madrid, that might happen this weekend. Barcelona have scored the most goals (18) away from home and have conceded the fewest (7) even if those numbers are inflated played two sides who capitulated in their previous games. Getafe have made it tough for the league leaders in their previous visits with a 1-2 Barcelona victory followed by a 0-0 draw. If you expect Barcelona to slip up after Real Madrid dropped points against Villarreal and Sevilla playing Atlético at the weekend too then you might have overdone it on the sherry over Christmas.

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao - draw

Celta Vigo are not as good as their 15 home goals might suggest and their expected goals against is in the lower half of the table too. Lucky for them, they are playing an Athletic Club side in the relegation zone and searching for an identity. They have improved slightly under Gaizka Garitano and have become harder to score against with no loss in three games under his command; they have also conceded just once in those games too after a 3-0 loss to Levante saw Eduardo Berizzo lose his job. Celta scored six goals in three (including two against Real Madrid) at home before a frustrating draw against Leganés saw them finish their 2018 in Balaidos on a meh note - expect Garitano to have taken notes of how Pellegrino defended that night. The short Christmas break might have helped both these sides with the new managers getting their first real chance to get hold of their players and instill their plan further.