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US Coronavirus: Where are cases increasing the fastest?

Covid-19 cases in the United States are up more than 105 percent since 4 July, with Alabama, New York, Hawaii, Massachusetts leading the surge.

Since the Fourth of July, covid-19 cases in the United States are up more than 105 percent. Our team took a look at which states are leading the surge.

The delta variant, a highly transmissible strain of covid-19 is leading to a surge in cases across the United States. The CDC has published data showing that the strain is highly transmissible and that the current therapeutics and vaccines available may not be as effective in treating and protecting people from the virus.

To understand just how rapidly cases are growing, we tallied the number of cases each state and Washington DC recorded over four weeks. Then by comparing those totals our team was able to identify where the number of new cases is growing the quickest.

Where are cases increasing?

At the national level, on 25 July, cases were up 105% over levels recorded on 4 July.

Half of all states saw an increase of over 100 percent over this period. States leading that surge include Alabama, Massachusetts, Hawaii, New York, and Maryland.

States Where Cases are Increasing


Vaccine Distribution (Percent)

Covid-19 Cases

Partially Vaccinated

Fully Vaccinated

July 4-11

July 18-25

Percent Change







New York




Alabama, which confirmed 2,821 cases from 4-11 July, confirmed 11,150 cases between 18-25 July, also has the nation’s lowest covid-19 vaccination rates. With less than half of the population either partially (34%) or fully vaccinated (42%), Alabama is experiencing a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” as Dr. Fauci has said.

Nationally, 49% of the population is fully vaccinated, while 56% have received at least one dose.

When looking at the covid-19 cases rates between 18-25 July and the week before, only Alabama saw an increase of over 100 percent. Twelve states saw case increases of over 50 percent over the two-week period.

Where are cases decreasing?

States Where Cases are Decreasing


Vaccine Distribution (Percent)

Covid-19 Cases

Partially Vaccinated

Fully Vaccinated

July 4-11

July 18-25

Percent Change

South Dakota








All but four states --- South Dakota, Utah, Colorado, and California -- are seeing increases over levels recorded between 4-11 July.

For these states, it is important to consider the vaccination rate and the population size when trying to understand the epidemiological situation. South Dakota and Utah saw the largest decreases, -20 and -11 percent respectively. However, these states had a relatively low case count of under 100 over those one-week periods.

California and Colorado have much larger populations and much higher vaccination rates. In California, over two-thirds of the population have received one dose of a vaccine, while 54 percent of Coloradans are fully vaccinated.

When looking at the number of cases reported between 18-25 and the week before, there are nine states that have seen decreases:

  • South Dakota (-54%)
  • California (-31%)
  • Utah (-28%)
  • Nebraska (-19%)
  • Nevada (-14%)
  • Colorado (-11%)
  • Washinton DC (-7%)
  • Vermont (-6%).
Indiana reported 3,413 cases over both weeks.