Economist criticizes Trump’s tariff magic formula: “this is like every stupid academic paper where they make some incredibly stupid claim”
Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused chaos across the world, with the decision being criticised by many.
Donald Trump has announced tariffs that are causing shockwaves across the world. No longer will trade involving the United States, both in and out, be easy: fees on goods coming and going will become more expensive, with the working class set to feel the heat the most.
The White House website, which now reads like the feed of a particularly persistent Truth Social user, has offered an ‘explanation’ as to how the tariffs have been calculated in an attempt to calm citizens. But it hasn’t gone down well.
Kush Desai, the Deputy White House Secretary, posted the algorithm along with the message that “we literally calculated tariff and non tariff barriers” - whatever he means by that.
Luckily for us all, there was an adult in the room to step in. Nate Silver, a New York Times writer and author, quoted Desai’s post saying “The White House is basically woke now, this is like every dumbass academic paper where they make some incredibly stupid claim but cover it up by using Greek symbols.”
How has Trump calculated the tariffs?
The first thing to understand is that, despite what Trump says, they are not reciprocal tariffs, nor are they non-tariff barriers. They took every territory in the world and looked at the trade deficit (how much is imported versus exported) and then divided the number by the trade into the USA.
For example, $17.9 billion is the trade deficit, compared to $28bn that they send the other way. Divide those two numbers and you get 64%. That’s the tariff for Indonesia. Every country that has a figure around evens gets hit with a standard 10% tariff, such as the United Kingdom.
British radio presenter James O’Brien called it “inexpressibly nonsensical mathematics" when explaining how Trump has calculated the tariffs, adding that they have been calculated in a way that make “back-of-the envelope Crayola scribblings look like the work of Isaac Newton, like Albert Einstein’s finest moment.”
Macro and geopolitical expert Marko Papic from BCA Research called Trump’s calculations “6th grade maths” as it appears that his administration have taken each country’s trade deficit with the US and “simply divided it with the exports to the US”.
The White House is basically woke now, this is like every dumbass academic paper where they make some incredibly stupid claim but cover it up by using Greek symbols. https://t.co/C6Zn5XwmJE
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 3, 2025
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“President Trump must recognise that approval ratings will fall to the mid-30s within weeks”, he added. “There will be constraints on many Republicans, which will impact the numbers in the US Congress,” he concluded.
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