Scientists reveal an unexpected twist: melting will be unstoppable even with current measures

In case you were hoping that hitting the world’s most ambitious climate target might buy us some time – or, at the very least, save some coastline – a group of scientists has bad news: even if global warming stays within the much-celebrated 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold, melting from the world’s ice sheets will likely become unstoppable.

That’s the bleak conclusion of new research published in Communications Earth & Environment for Nature, which pulled together satellite data, climate models, and even deep-sea sediment and octopus DNA to figure out what it would actually take to protect the massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Spoiler: much, much more than we’re currently doing.

Even today’s level of warming – around 1.2°C (2.2°F) – may be enough to tip the ice sheets into retreat. And that retreat would not be gentle. Sea levels could rise nearly half an inch per year by 2100, the authors say, flooding coastlines and forcing hundreds of millions to move inland. Those hell bent on stopping migration may want to reconsider their approach to climate change.

How much ice is being lost?

Greenland and Antarctica are already losing 370 billion tons of ice a year, and the rate is climbing. Together, they hold enough frozen water to raise sea levels by over 200 feet – not something we’ll see in our lifetimes, but a clear sign of the long-term risk.

The most chilling part? Past models said Greenland would only collapse with 3°C (5.4°F) of warming. Now scientists think 1.5°C (2.7°F) might be enough. And to actually avoid triggering unstoppable melt? We’d need to hold at 1°C (1.8°F) – a number we’ve already blown past.

Glaciologist Chris Stokes, one of the study’s authors, put it bluntly via CNN: “You don’t slow sea level rise at 1.5.” In fact, that’s when the real acceleration begins.

Climate action more urgent

This doesn’t mean climate action is pointless. Every tenth of a degree still matters. But it does mean one thing very clearly: sticking to current plans won’t save the ice. The best we can hope for now is to slow the damage – and get ready for the reshaping of the coasts.

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